9743 Mckinstry Rd · Machias, NY 14101

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2002 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath 2001 double wide on 1/2 acre. Excellent condition. Kitchen has a breakfast bar, sit down area and lots of nice cupboards. Formal dining room. Huge living room with french doors opening to a den/ office (or 3rd bedroom). Master suite features 2 closets, one a walk-in, and master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Ceiling fans throughout. Convenience of town water and natural gas! Nice level country lot backs up to a farm field. Quiet secondary road. Very convenient to Route 16. Priced below assessed value.

Key facts

• Back yard
• Thermal windows
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• QUIET RESIDENTIAL STREET
• CEILING FANS
• THERMAL WINDOWS
• 10X16 SHED
• BACK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water connected (public); Septic tank; Circuit breakers for electric; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double wide mobile home; Redman make; Resale condition; Rectangular, rural residential lot with city street frontage (lot dimensions approx. 100 x 175)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Open porch; Dirt driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Breakfast bar; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom 1 (first level) approximately 13 x 13; Bedroom 2 (first level) approximately 10 x 10; Bedroom 3 (first level) approximately 11 x 11
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Cathedral ceilings; Den; Home office; Main level primary; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,164 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $125k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,157 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $21,086
• Equity at exit: $55,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $66,555
• Equity at exit: $84,256

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14101

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,966/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $145	+0% $109	+5% $74	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $60	+0% $109	+5% $158	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $141	base $109	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 528-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,966 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,966
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$172
• After-tax cash flow: $1,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Machias

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1164
• US rank: #25256

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machias, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,984

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Polish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 269.726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-08-15 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2024-08-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-05-15 Listed $122,500 WNYREIS
• 2012-09-06 Sold (MLS) $52,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-11 Listed $57,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,966 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.