416 Clay St · Paris, IL 61944

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1940 9,179 sqft lot Est $100k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable and full of potential, this 3-4 bedroom home offers plenty of space for a growing family or an excellent investment opportunity. Recent updates include all-new flooring throughout and new decking in most rooms, new screen door, and outdoor water spigot & valve, The interior has been primed and is ready for your choice of paint colors, allowing you to add your personal touch. Enjoy year-round comfort with central air conditioning and a fenced backyard that’s perfect for children, pets, and gardening. Whether you’re looking for an affordable family home, rental property, or an investment with income potential, this property is definitely worth a look!

Key facts

• New decking
• New flooring
• Outdoor water spigot

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW DECKING
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR WATER SPIGOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater (utility)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Gravel road access; Zoned residential

Interior

• Kitchen: No built-in appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $55k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.98%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,705
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 Walcott St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,153 (-2%)	4mo	$65,000	$56	81
710 E Blackburn St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,180 (+1%)	10mo	$135,000	$114	70
7 Woodhall Pl	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-1%)	8mo	$136,000	$117	64
702 E Blackburn St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+6%)	9mo	$130,900	$105	63
719 Connelly St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,346 (+15%)	1mo	$115,000	$85	60
228 Ann St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+9%)	8mo	$125,000	$98	60
602 Sunrise Ct	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+12%)	14mo	$125,000	$95	58
701 N Central Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-4%)	12mo	$17,000	$15	56
132 N High St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (+5%)	1mo	$77,000	$63	56
704 N Main St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (+10%)	12mo	$82,000	$64	52
801 N Central Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-6%)	11mo	$92,000	$84	50
509 Milton St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,015 (-14%)	13mo	$33,500	$33	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $21,290
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $57,441
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $471

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 670-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $54,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$254/yr (+$21/mo · 34.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,028
• − Management: −$1,028
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $5,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $4,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+205.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $54,900 CIBR
• 2008-11-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $738 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.