209 Polk St · Gilmer, TX 75644

$139,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,129 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1930 10,106 sqft lot Est $169k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has been completely remodeled 2 bedroom 2 bath with. new walls, fresh paint, new floors, new cabinets, new electrical, new HVAC, new tankless water heater, double pain windows, metal roof, new ceiling fans and a gas logs ventless fireplace. Inside photos are coming soon!!

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Gas fireplace
• Backyard

Tags

• STONE COTTAGE
• GAS FIREPLACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FULLY COVERED BACK PORCH
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,383 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,350
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
603 W Harrison St	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,110 (-2%)	8mo	$160,000	$144	84
800 W Butler	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,033 (-8%)	12mo	$155,000	$150	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $67,670
• Equity at exit: $126,122

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $206,136
• Equity at exit: $271,987

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,578/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $116,094

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
620 Mary St Gilmer, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	43d	1	0.62mi
300 Pecan St Unit 8 Gilmer, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$975	$1.11	43d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-04
   soldstatus
2. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-06
   price $139,999
4. 2025-12-17
   price $149,000
5. 2025-12-10
   price $152,000
6. 2025-11-15
   price $157,000
7. 2025-10-29
   listed $163,000 Active
8. 2018-08-06
   soldstatus 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This home has been completely remodeled 2 bedroom 2 bath with. new walls, fresh paint, new floors, new cabinets, new electrical, new HVAC, new tankless water heater, double pain windows, metal roof, new ceiling fans and a gas logs ventless fireplace. Inside photos are coming soon!!

9. 2018-08-01
   soldstatus
10. 2018-07-02
    listed $86,000 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    This home has been completely remodeled 2 bedroom 2 bath with. new walls, fresh paint, new floors, new cabinets, new electrical, new HVAC, new tankless water heater, double pain windows, metal roof, new ceiling fans and a gas logs ventless fireplace. Inside photos are coming soon!!

11. 2017-04-19
    soldstatus 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    BRING YOUR HANDYMAN SKILLS! THIS HOUSE IS A SHELL WAITING FOR YOU TO CREATE YOUR OWN INSIDE! ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES! SET IT UP AS A 2/2 HOME OR HOWEVER YOU DESIRE AND ENJOY! THE HOUSE RECENTLY HAD A METAL ROOF PUT ON IT AND WINDOWS INSTALLED THROUGHOUT. THIS IS JUST BLOCKS FROM DOWNTOWN AND WOULD MAKE A PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY.

12. 2017-04-19
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    BRING YOUR HANDYMAN SKILLS! THIS HOUSE IS A SHELL WAITING FOR YOU TO CREATE YOUR OWN INSIDE! ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES! SET IT UP AS A 2/2 HOME OR HOWEVER YOU DESIRE AND ENJOY! THE HOUSE RECENTLY HAD A METAL ROOF PUT ON IT AND WINDOWS INSTALLED THROUGHOUT. THIS IS JUST BLOCKS FROM DOWNTOWN AND WOULD MAKE A PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY.

13. 2017-04-19
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    BRING YOUR HANDYMAN SKILLS! THIS HOUSE IS A SHELL WAITING FOR YOU TO CREATE YOUR OWN INSIDE! ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES! SET IT UP AS A 2/2 HOME OR HOWEVER YOU DESIRE AND ENJOY! THE HOUSE RECENTLY HAD A METAL ROOF PUT ON IT AND WINDOWS INSTALLED THROUGHOUT. THIS IS JUST BLOCKS FROM DOWNTOWN AND WOULD MAKE A PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY.

14. 2017-04-10
    listed $29,900 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    BRING YOUR HANDYMAN SKILLS! THIS HOUSE IS A SHELL WAITING FOR YOU TO CREATE YOUR OWN INSIDE! ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES! SET IT UP AS A 2/2 HOME OR HOWEVER YOU DESIRE AND ENJOY! THE HOUSE RECENTLY HAD A METAL ROOF PUT ON IT AND WINDOWS INSTALLED THROUGHOUT. THIS IS JUST BLOCKS FROM DOWNTOWN AND WOULD MAKE A PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY.

15. 2017-03-09
    listed $29,900
16. 2016-05-20
    soldstatus
17. 2016-04-19
    listed $12,900
18. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,578
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$4,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $-648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilmer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+985.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $139,999 LAAR
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $149,000 LAAR
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $152,000 LAAR
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $157,000 LAAR
• 2025-10-29 Listed $163,000 LAAR
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2018-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-02 Listed $86,000 LAAR
• 2017-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-19 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2017-04-19 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-04-10 Listed $29,900 GTAR
• 2017-03-09 Listed $29,900 LAAR
• 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2016-04-19 Listed $12,900 LAAR
• 2007-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,578 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.