8787 Route 242 · Little Valley, NY 14755

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 287 Days on market

Built 1925 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Attention handymen and investors! This two bedroom (with a possible third) one and a half bath home is ready for your finishing touches. The first floor features a bedroom, full bath, laundry/utility room with a half bath, a generous sized bonus room and large living room. Upstairs you will find the second bedroom and a large landing that could easily be a third bedroom. The siding is cement fiber and the roof is metal for a maintenance free exterior. The lot is 406 feet deep and there is a creek that runs along the back of the property! All this just outside the village limits of Little Valley; walking distance to restaurants, the Pat Mcgee Trail, Cattaraugus County Fairgrounds and the mun

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Bonus room
• Cement fiber siding

Tags

• CEMENT FIBER SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• BONUS ROOM
• CREEK ALONG PROPERTY
• NEAR PAT MCGEE TRAIL
• NEAR MUNICIPAL BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #460 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $55k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.19%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Center St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+3%)	2mo	$130,295	$110	65
411 Erie St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,240 (+7%)	17mo	$148,400	$120	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $32,508
• Equity at exit: $34,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $82,624
• Equity at exit: $61,194

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14755

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-06
   price $55,000
4. 2025-09-20
   price $60,000
5. 2025-08-18
   price $65,000
6. 2025-07-08
   listed $70,000 Active
7. 2024-12-11
   soldstatus $36,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$967
• − Management: −$967
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $2,598
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $2,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600024
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,623
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4159
• State rank: #460 of 590 in NY

Livability — Little Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #821
• US rank: #15872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,834

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Current HPI: 334.2886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $36,350 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,935 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.