173 Sorgee Rd · Natchitoches, LA 71457

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

2.00 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Good investment or rental property for sale just down the road from Sibley Lake boat launch, NSU, and downtown. Approx. 2 acres of fenced in property with 2-car attached carport area and a large shop with electric plus drop shed. With a little work this could be a great investment or a starter home!!

Key facts

• Rental property
• Attached carport
• Investment property

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• RENTAL PROPERTY
• FENCED IN PROPERTY
• LARGE SHOP
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• SIBLEY LAKE BOAT LAUNCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding/frame construction; Composition and metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Chain link and other fencing; Workshop/outbuilding; Acreage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (listed individually)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; No central heating
• Interior features: Living room; Kitchen; Bedroom 1; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Bedroom 4; Handicap accessible
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,006 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,357
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,829
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71457

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $207	+0% $171	+5% $136	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $123	+0% $171	+5% $220	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $203	base $171	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 301-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $125,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $23
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $2,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchitoches Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201140
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $30,204
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #41 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natchitoches

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #23935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchitoches, LA
• City population: 27,214
• Population (ZIP): 25,485

Population outlook (Natchitoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,130 people
• By 2030: 37,412 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,550 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 33,580 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 29,268 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 23,909 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 45% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natchitoches

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.2% · R 60.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -7.3pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+11.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+7.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.84%
• Current HPI: 103.9202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $125,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $98,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $120,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-11-25 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.