415 N Grand St · Willow Springs, MO 65793

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Other public records · 437 Days on market

Built 1935 0.34 ac lot $87/sqft · 21% below area Est $101k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community.. With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional., with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle. $89,900

Key facts

• Hard wood floors
• Large back deck
• Proximity to parks

Tags

• HARD WOOD FLOORS
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE BACK DECK
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PROXIMITY TO PARKS
• PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 437 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 437 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.82%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,064
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -20.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-123
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $16,347
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65793

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $613

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $225	+0% $202	+5% $179	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $168	+0% $202	+5% $236	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $222	base $202	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 437 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 435 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 434 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 433 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 432 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 430 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 429 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 426 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 425 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 424 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 423 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 420 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 419 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 418 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 417 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    status Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community.. With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional., with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle. $89,900

17. 2026-03-05
    status Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community. . With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional. , with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. The home also has a basement for storage and the stormy seasons. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle.

18. 2026-03-02
    status Pending 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community.. With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional., with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle. $89,900

19. 2026-02-19
    status Pending 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community. . With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional. , with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. The home also has a basement for storage and the stormy seasons. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle.

20. 2026-02-04
    price $80,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community.. With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional., with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle. $89,900

21. 2026-02-03
    price $80,000 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community. . With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional. , with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. The home also has a basement for storage and the stormy seasons. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle.

22. 2025-02-18
    listed $89,900 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community.. With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional., with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle. $89,900

23. 2025-01-20
    listed $89,900 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming two bedroom one bath home in a peaceful community. . With 918 sq. ft. of living space this house is cozy but functional. , with hard wood floors, wood cabinets, and sitting on a corner lot. The large back deck offers an excellent outdoor space for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the outside. The home also has a basement for storage and the stormy seasons. This home is in proximity to parks, restaurants, and grocery stores which adds convenience and enhances the community lifestyle.

24. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus
25. 2015-06-19
    soldstatus
26. 2015-06-18
    soldstatus
27. 2015-05-06
    listed $34,900
28. 1989-11-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 103.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow Springs R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2932070
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,334
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5207
• State rank: #140 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #16837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Springs, MO
• City population: 5,679
• Population (ZIP): 5,679

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.63%
• Current HPI: 220.7596
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+129.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-03-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $80,000 SOMO
• 2025-02-18 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-20 Listed $89,900 SOMO
• 2022-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-18 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-05-06 Listed $34,900 SOMO
• 1989-11-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $381 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.