2221 Kentucky St · Gary, IN 46407

$18,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1945 5,662 sqft lot Est $18k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-upper with other nice houses on the same block. Needs repairs to the roof and floors. Being sold AS IS. Great potential for a flip or rental or primary residence. Low property taxes. Handyman's special!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is vacant
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: One-story property; Built in 1945; Property listed as a fixer
• Construction: 1945 construction; Basement: unfinished
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (no appliances listed)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Second bedroom
• Flooring: No flooring information provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No heating or cooling systems specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Cap rate 57.8% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,137/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 392% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $300 of equity ($124 loan paydown + $176 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $18,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 184.05%
• DSCR: 9.19
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $18,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2244 Kentucky St	0.05mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	4mo	$16,000	$24	95
2254 Tennessee St	0.06mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	11mo	$17,500	$26	88
2259 Delaware St	0.45mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	4mo	$17,000	$25	76
2413-2415 Industrial Blvd	0.26mi	2/1.0	700 (+4%)	6mo	$20,000	$29	76
2290 Maryland St	0.42mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	6mo	$9,000	$13	76
2339 Delaware St	0.46mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	14mo	$17,900	$27	64
2379 Industrial Blvd	0.26mi	2/1.0	600 (-11%)	7mo	$13,000	$22	64
1824 Central Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	725 (+8%)	2mo	$101,000	$139	56
1819 Illinois St	0.57mi	2/1.0	725 (+8%)	11mo	$55,000	$76	51
2271 Pennsylvania St	0.50mi	2/1.0	725 (+8%)	15mo	$26,000	$36	51
2180 Nichols Pl	0.61mi	2/1.0	771 (+15%)	4mo	$15,000	$19	44
2237 E 19th Pl	0.70mi	2/1.0	725 (+8%)	12mo	$83,000	$114	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.84×
• Total profit: $49,570
• Equity at exit: $6,126

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.82×
• Total profit: $109,991
• Equity at exit: $8,126

Cash invested: $5,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46407

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $158

Max offer price $18,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $778	+0% $773	+5% $768	+10% $763
Rent	-10% $683	-5% $728	+0% $773	+5% $818	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $778	base $773	+0.5pp $768	+1.0pp $764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,500
• Closing costs: $540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2355 Rhode Island St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	701	$1,095	$1.56	44d	1	0.22mi
2453 Prospect St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	704	$1,095	$1.56	0d	1	0.38mi
1843 Illinois St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	18d	1	0.53mi
1316 Delaware St Unit 2 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	21d	1	0.94mi
2378 Jackson St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	672	$1,050	$1.56	0d	1	1.09mi
2572-76 Van Buren Pl Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	0d	1	1.21mi
837 W 27th Ave Unit B Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	0d	1	1.40mi
837 W 27th Ave Unit A Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	0d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $18,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 208-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $18,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,008
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,091
• − Management: −$1,091
• − Depreciation: −$524
• Taxable income: $9,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $6,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 8,577
• Household income: $28,526
• Rent vs Own: 58.8% rent · 41.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 392.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 253.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $18,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-23 Listed $15,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-17.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $278 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.