180 Lake Dr · Vine Grove, KY 40175

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 798 sqft · Other · 116 Days on market

Built 1985 1.70 ac lot $119/sqft · 45% below area Est $173k · 45% under ↓ 27% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH ONLY!!! This property offers practical space, recent exterior updates, and flexible use potential. The home measures approximately 57x14 and features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms and an attached shop for added versatility. The exterior has been updated with new black metal and siding, giving the home a refreshed look. Inside, you’ll find a 10x12 living room, 12x11 kitchen, 10x13 bedroom, 13x12 bedroom, and a primary bedroom (11x14) with an 8x10 attached bath. There is also a 10x6 laundry room and an 8x12 covered porch for outdoor enjoyment. The seller believes the primary bedroom may be an add-on. The attached shop includes running water and electricity, offering space for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. The property currently has financing through Kentucky Land Company. The mobile home tongue remains attached; condition of tires and axles is unknown. With recent exterior improvements and additional shop space, this property provides flexibility and opportunity in Vine Grove.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Running water
• Electricity

Tags

• RECENT EXTERIOR UPDATES
• ATTACHED SHOP
• COVERED PORCH
• FLEXIBLE USE POTENTIAL
• RUNNING WATER
• ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $751 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.90%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,648
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -44.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $32,430
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $89,727
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40175

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $710

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $805	-5% $778	+0% $751	+5% $725	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $686	+0% $751	+5% $817	+10% $883
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $776	base $751	+0.5pp $727	+1.0pp $702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-04-22
    price $95,000 1025-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1025 chars)

    CASH ONLY!!! This property offers practical space, recent exterior updates, and flexible use potential. The home measures approximately 57x14 and features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms and an attached shop for added versatility. The exterior has been updated with new black metal and siding, giving the home a refreshed look. Inside, you’ll find a 10x12 living room, 12x11 kitchen, 10x13 bedroom, 13x12 bedroom, and a primary bedroom (11x14) with an 8x10 attached bath. There is also a 10x6 laundry room and an 8x12 covered porch for outdoor enjoyment. The seller believes the primary bedroom may be an add-on. The attached shop includes running water and electricity, offering space for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. The property currently has financing through Kentucky Land Company. The mobile home tongue remains attached; condition of tires and axles is unknown. With recent exterior improvements and additional shop space, this property provides flexibility and opportunity in Vine Grove.

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $130,000 Active 1025-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1025 chars)

    CASH ONLY!!! This property offers practical space, recent exterior updates, and flexible use potential. The home measures approximately 57x14 and features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms and an attached shop for added versatility. The exterior has been updated with new black metal and siding, giving the home a refreshed look. Inside, you’ll find a 10x12 living room, 12x11 kitchen, 10x13 bedroom, 13x12 bedroom, and a primary bedroom (11x14) with an 8x10 attached bath. There is also a 10x6 laundry room and an 8x12 covered porch for outdoor enjoyment. The seller believes the primary bedroom may be an add-on. The attached shop includes running water and electricity, offering space for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. The property currently has financing through Kentucky Land Company. The mobile home tongue remains attached; condition of tires and axles is unknown. With recent exterior improvements and additional shop space, this property provides flexibility and opportunity in Vine Grove.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 191.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $7,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Vine Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #5837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.55%
• Current HPI: 246.3715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-26.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $95,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $130,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $281 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.