8306 Vintage Creek Dr · Houston, TX 77379

$315,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,171 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1974 0.28 ac lot $99/sqft · 17% below area Est $379k · 17% under $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home with semi-circular driveway in well-established Memorial Northwest. Large master & secondary bedrooms. The spacious family room has a wet bar and built-ins. You'll love the bright, kitchen and breakfast room. Your backyard has a paver patio, established landscaping & a soothing water feature. Conveniently located close to shopping & restaurants and zoned to Klein ISD. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• Wet bar
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• WET BAR
• CROWN MOLDING
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• DOUBLE OVENS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark; Annual association fee; Association amenities include fitness center, playground, community pool, tennis courts, and trash service; Association fee covers common areas, grounds maintenance, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway with garage door opener; Circular driveway; Additional parking
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces southeast; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1974
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fence in back yard; Sprinkler/irrigation; Tennis court(s) (association); Subdivision and side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Electric oven and range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 20.5 x 14.4); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wet bar; Crown molding; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Jetted tub; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Separate shower; Tile countertops; Tub/shower combination; Window coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor (approx. 11.0 x 5.4)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Klein ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,894 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,054
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -16.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17606 Abby Ln	0.38mi	4/3.5	3,296 (+4%)	0mo	$419,990	$127	75
8803 Tweedbrook Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,899 (-9%)	0mo	$359,900	$124	70
8111 Oak Moss Dr	0.28mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,396 (+7%)	0mo	$354,999	$105	70
8006 Vickridge Ln	0.38mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,308 (+4%)	1mo	$465,000	$141	69
17010 Hillswind Cir	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,763 (-13%)	2mo	$410,000	$148	62
8107 Twining Oaks Ln	0.34mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,498 (+10%)	2mo	$400,000	$114	60
17415 Wilton Park Ct	0.74mi	4/4.5	3,270 (+3%)	0mo	$515,000	$157	56
8827 Stoney Bend Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,728 (-14%)	1mo	$314,000	$115	54
16902 Canyon Ridge Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,705 (-15%)	1mo	$385,000	$142	52
9119 Prairie Trails Dr N	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,774 (-12%)	2mo	$275,000	$99	44
16230 Heden Rd	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,541 (+12%)	3mo	$549,000	$155	41
8007 Sunset Falls Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,496 (+10%)	1mo	$675,000	$193	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-79,114
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-124,027
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$503 /mo · $6,038/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,980

Max offer price $257,615

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16623 Manningtree Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2572	$2,800	$1.09	43d	1	0.68mi
9131 Landry Blvd Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	3156	$2,681	$0.85	7d	1	0.98mi
8015 Democracy Ct Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2931	$2,650	$0.90	24d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1037-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $315,000 Active 1037-char remark
3. 2018-04-09
   soldstatus
4. 2018-04-06
   soldstatus Sold 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Beautiful home with semi-circular driveway in well-established Memorial Northwest. Large master & secondary bedrooms. The spacious family room has a wet bar and built-ins. You'll love the bright, kitchen and breakfast room. Your backyard has a paver patio, established landscaping & a soothing water feature. Conveniently located close to shopping & restaurants and zoned to Klein ISD. Welcome home!

5. 2018-03-23
   historical 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Beautiful home with semi-circular driveway in well-established Memorial Northwest. Large master & secondary bedrooms. The spacious family room has a wet bar and built-ins. You'll love the bright, kitchen and breakfast room. Your backyard has a paver patio, established landscaping & a soothing water feature. Conveniently located close to shopping & restaurants and zoned to Klein ISD. Welcome home!

6. 2018-03-22
   listed $183,000 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Beautiful home with semi-circular driveway in well-established Memorial Northwest. Large master & secondary bedrooms. The spacious family room has a wet bar and built-ins. You'll love the bright, kitchen and breakfast room. Your backyard has a paver patio, established landscaping & a soothing water feature. Conveniently located close to shopping & restaurants and zoned to Klein ISD. Welcome home!

7. 2017-09-07
   historical
8. 2017-08-30
   price $229,900
9. 2017-07-26
   listed $249,900 Active
10. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,038 · $503/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,038 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$6,038
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,466
• − Management: −$2,466
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,242
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-03-22 Listed $183,000 HARMLS
• 2017-09-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-08-30 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2017-07-26 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,038 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.