26212 N 54th Ave · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$625,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,197 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2008 6,959 sqft lot $284/sqft · 28% above area Est $689k · 9% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• Sizable family room
• Built in appliances
• Spotless kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• METICULOUSLY DESIGNED INTERIOR
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SIZABLE FAMILY ROOM
• SPOTLESS KITCHEN
• BUILT IN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (46.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (54.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($588k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,476 (54.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.37%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 18.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $689,323
• List price: $625,000
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26132 N 52nd Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,448 (+11%)	3mo	$700,000	$286	64
5237 W Redbird Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+5%)	7mo	$625,000	$270	63
25919 N 54th Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,882 (-14%)	2mo	$410,000	$218	59
5339 W Chisum Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,883 (-14%)	6mo	$365,000	$194	57
5113 W Molly Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+5%)	9mo	$607,500	$263	55
26217 N 56th Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,512 (+14%)	7mo	$810,000	$322	54
5537 W Desperado Way	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,336 (+6%)	6mo	$650,000	$278	54
26330 N 56th Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,512 (+14%)	9mo	$775,000	$309	51
5123 W Redbird Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,314 (+5%)	8mo	$608,500	$263	50
5253 W Maya Way	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (-13%)	1mo	$645,000	$337	49
5126 W Bajada Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,978 (-10%)	3mo	$555,000	$281	44
5309 W Buckskin Trl	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,022 (-8%)	8mo	$505,000	$250	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $232,510
• Equity at exit: $563,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $763,379
• Equity at exit: $1,214,238

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,311/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-1,659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,964

Max offer price $331,969

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,305	-5% $-1,482	+0% $-1,659	+5% $-1,836	+10% $-2,013
Rent	-10% $-1,885	-5% $-1,772	+0% $-1,659	+5% $-1,546	+10% $-1,432
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,344	-0.5pp $-1,500	base $-1,659	+0.5pp $-1,821	+1.0pp $-1,985

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5310 W Chisum Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,195	$1.28	0d	1	0.11mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	9d	1	0.30mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	9d	1	0.34mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	0.34mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	25d	1	0.36mi
5433 W Red Bird Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2745	$3,300	$1.20	25d	1	0.41mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	19d	1	0.52mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	9d	1	0.53mi
5511 W Desperado Way Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,695	$1.50	0d	1	0.56mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	18d	1	0.58mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.64mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	14d	1	0.66mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	45d	1	0.70mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	3d	1	0.72mi
27807 N 59th Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2983	$2,999	$1.01	0d	1	1.11mi
6102 W Fallen Leaf Ln Glendale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2018	$2,350	$1.16	25d	1	1.13mi
6326 W El Cortez Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2579	$3,450	$1.34	4d	1	1.17mi
25223 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2113	$2,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.21mi
6017 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2563	$2,750	$1.07	4d	1	1.26mi
6101 W Whispering Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	1938	$2,950	$1.52	19d	1	1.28mi
4536 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,500	$1.27	45d	1	1.31mi
6424 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,195	$1.33	9d	1	1.34mi
6506 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2876	$3,100	$1.08	6d	1	1.35mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	16d	1	1.37mi
6425 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2295	$2,250	$0.98	6d	1	1.37mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	12d	1	1.39mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	25d	1	1.39mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	23d	1	1.39mi
6618 W Honeysuckle Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2436	$2,200	$0.90	45d	1	1.46mi
6602 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2793	$3,300	$1.18	0d	1	1.47mi
6427 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,150	$1.40	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

2. 2026-05-04
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

3. 2026-04-23
   price $625,000 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

4. 2026-04-01
   price $639,900 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

5. 2026-03-11
   price $649,900 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

6. 2026-02-24
   listed $665,000 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Prepare to be impressed by this gorgeous two-story home that blends style, comfort, and scenic beauty! You'll LOVE the meticulously designed interior showcasing a large living & dining room and the sizable family room bathed in natural light. Spotless kitchen is a cook's delight, fully equipped with built-in appliances, abundant cabinetry topped with crown moulding, recessed lighting, pantry, granite counters, a peninsula with a walk-in breakfast bar, and a cozy breakfast nook. A powder room completes the main level. Double doors lead to the serene main bedroom, offering plush carpet, balcony access, a sitting room, a private bathroom with a make-up desk, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy amazing mountain views from the balcony, or spend quiet moments under the covered patio. Don't miss out!

7. 2026-01-29
   historical $2,850
8. 2025-11-08
   price $2,850
9. 2025-09-24
   price $2,900
10. 2025-08-06
    listed $3,000
11. 2024-07-15
    historical $3,000
12. 2024-07-02
    listed $3,000
13. 2023-12-02
    historical $2,850
14. 2023-11-03
    price $2,850
15. 2023-10-12
    listed $3,000
16. 2006-10-24
    soldstatus $9,416,487

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,311 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$3,311
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,750
• − Management: −$2,750
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$32,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-93.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $625,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $639,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $649,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $665,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Rental Removed $2,850 ARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $2,850 ARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $2,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed for Rent $3,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Rental Removed $3,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed for Rent $3,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-02 Rental Removed $2,850 ARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $2,850 ARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Listed for Rent $3,000 ARMLS
• 2006-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $9,416,487 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,311 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.