386 Tom Berry Rd · Mendenhall, MS 39114

$138,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1988 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great first home with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. There are new floors throughout the house and fresh paint inside and out. You will love the large workshop and fenced back yard.

Key facts

• New floors
• Fresh paint
• Fenced back yard

Tags

• NEW FLOORS
• FRESH PAINT
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-787/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Mendenhall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#220 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Simpson County School District (rural): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #90 of 130 in MS (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mendenhall Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #203 of 375 statewide, top 56%, 579 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 76% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Simpson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,449 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $70,959
• Equity at exit: $124,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $212,201
• Equity at exit: $268,104

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39114

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,314/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $126,415

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-27	+0% $-66	+5% $-105	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-107	+0% $-66	+5% $-24	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-30	base $-66	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $138,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-22
    listed $138,000 Active
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $138,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    This is a great first home with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. There are new floors throughout the house and fresh paint inside and out. You will love the large workshop and fenced back yard.

19. 2023-09-07
    historical
20. 2023-06-21
    price $125,000
21. 2023-05-16
    price $135,000
22. 2023-04-14
    listed $155,000 Active
23. 2022-02-09
    historical
24. 2022-01-24
    status Active
25. 2021-11-24
    status Pending
26. 2021-09-24
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,314
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$3,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$773
• After-tax cash flow: $-14/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Simpson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803990
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,826
• Composite: 17.46/100
• National rank: #9063
• State rank: #90 of 130 in MS

Livability — Mendenhall

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #19070

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mendenhall, MS
• Population (ZIP): 10,553

Population outlook (Simpson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,197 people
• By 2030: 25,474 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 23,811 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 22,024 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 17,701 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 13,732 · -47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 39% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Simpson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.4% · R 68.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+30.4 2016: R+30.9 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.04%
• Current HPI: 286.42
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-22 Listed $138,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-16 Listed $138,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2023-09-07 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-06-21 Price Changed $125,000 MLSU
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $135,000 MLSU
• 2023-04-14 Listed $155,000 MLSU
• 2022-02-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-01-24 Relisted — MLSU
• 2021-11-24 Pending — MLSU
• 2021-09-24 Listed $130,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,314 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.