Plan 1389 Plan · San Antonio, TX 78073

$182,995

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 356 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Kitchen pantry
• Linen closets
• Front porch

Tags

• KITCHEN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LINEN CLOSETS
• POWDER BATH
• BUILT-IN PEST CONTROL SYSTEM
• FRONT PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $182,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $224,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-554 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,538 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.56%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,800
• List price: $182,995
• Delta: -18.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12926 Bone Dry Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (-10%)	2mo	$182,931	$147	68
5606 Franklin Hls	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-0%)	1mo	$264,295	$190	59
5622 Franklin Hls	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-0%)	2mo	$266,475	$192	58
5635 Franklin Hls	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-0%)	1mo	$273,110	$197	57
4619 Legacy Pt	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+6%)	3mo	$219,999	$149	56
4610 Legacy Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+6%)	1mo	$189,999	$129	56
4643 Legacy Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+6%)	2mo	$199,999	$136	55
4619 Legacy Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+6%)	1mo	$186,999	$127	55
4627 Legacy Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+6%)	2mo	$191,999	$130	55
4614 Legacy Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-9%)	2mo	$179,999	$143	50
4611 Legacy Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-9%)	0mo	$174,999	$139	50
4623 Legacy Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-9%)	2mo	$180,999	$144	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,889
• Equity at exit: $96,069

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,571
• Equity at exit: $144,269

Cash invested: $62,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,372/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $144,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-399	-5% $-476	+0% $-554	+5% $-632	+10% $-709
Rent	-10% $-654	-5% $-604	+0% $-554	+5% $-504	+10% $-454
Rate	-1.0pp $-441	-0.5pp $-497	base $-554	+0.5pp $-612	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,200
• Closing costs: $6,744
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13139 Watson Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,305	$1.28	0d	1	0.16mi
12955 Fischer Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,129	$1.07	25d	1	0.34mi
6002 Sliding Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,425	$1.02	25d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $182,995 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,995 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,995 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,995 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,995 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,995 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,995 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,995 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,995 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $177,995 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,995 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,995 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,995 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,995 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $177,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-03-27
    price $175,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-03-24
    price $185,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-02-27
    price $187,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2026-01-28
    price $177,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

20. 2025-11-10
    price $187,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

21. 2025-10-14
    price $184,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

22. 2025-09-29
    price $179,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

23. 2025-09-03
    price $177,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

24. 2025-06-30
    listed $175,995 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    * Kitchen pantry * Walk-in and linen closets at primary bath * Powder bath * 50-gal. energy-efficient electric water heater * Built-in pest control system * Open floor plan * Front porch * Low-E windows * Spacious laundry room * Loft * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,592
• − Property taxes: −$3,372
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$6,540
• Taxable loss: −$10,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,610
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $177,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $175,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $185,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $187,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $177,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $187,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $184,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $179,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $177,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Listed $175,995 Zillow