7716 Dahlia Dr #278 · Gautier, MS 39553

$93,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 121 Days on market

Built 2016 7,405 sqft lot Est $97k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Open floor plan
• Spacious living area

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET STORAGE
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.2% in Gautier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#89 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gautier Middle School (math 53% / reading 37%, grade D, #43 of 179 statewide, top 24%, 423 students, 100% FRL); Gautier High School (math 55% / reading 42%, grade D, #26 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 901 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $643 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.22%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,280
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7706 Rockvale Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	17mo	$92,000	$76	72
2012 Broadmoor Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+14%)	3mo	$35,000	$24	65
7853 Petunia Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+11%)	3mo	$117,500	$83	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $19,811
• Equity at exit: $13,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $62,230
• Equity at exit: $8,041

Cash invested: $26,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39553

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $93,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,250
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8210 Exchange St Gautier, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	13d	1	0.42mi
7505 Fish Hawk Rd Gautier, MS	2.0	1.5	1812	$1,700	$0.94	20d	1	0.45mi
7908 Martin Bluff Rd Gautier, MS	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,450	$1.06	13d	1	0.46mi
2005 Parkview Dr Gautier, MS	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,700	$0.95	20d	1	0.55mi
2025 Woodville Ln Gautier, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	13d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   status Active
3. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   price $93,000
5. 2026-01-26
   status Active
6. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-04
   price $97,000
8. 2025-10-30
   listed $99,000 Active
9. 2025-01-15
   soldstatus Closed 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

10. 2024-12-16
    status Pending 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

11. 2024-12-07
    status Pending 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

12. 2024-12-06
    price $87,499 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

13. 2024-11-18
    price $88,999 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

14. 2024-10-29
    price $91,799 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

15. 2024-09-11
    price $94,299 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

16. 2024-08-30
    listed $98,299 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the heart of Gautier, MS. Offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space, this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers, or families looking for a cozy, low maintenance residence. Situated just 2 minutes away from Hickory Hill Golf Course, perfect for the golf enthusiast or anyone who enjoys serene surroundings. With easy access to local schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this property is a must-see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable income: $5,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,298
• After-tax cash flow: $5,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gautier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #11250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gautier, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 17,225
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 17,225
• Household income: $57,460
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.77%
• Current HPI: 209.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-15 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-25 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $93,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-01-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $97,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-30 Listed $99,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-12-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-12-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $87,499 MLSU
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $88,999 MLSU
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $91,799 MLSU
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $94,299 MLSU
• 2024-08-30 Listed $98,299 MLSU