12163 Snell · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2024 0.75 ac lot Est $318k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Large newer double wide home at Lake Texoma! This home provides 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open floor plan, formal dining, gravel circle drive, and 20x25 metal storage building. Close to several restaurants, boat ramps and sandy beaches of Texoma!

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is less than 5 miles to Texoma Lake

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural water source); Septic tank
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; Single-story; Home faces north; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank exterior; Manufactured construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Owner-reported year built
• Exterior features: Storage building; Workshop; No exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Range; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Laminate countertops; Insulated vinyl windows; Electric range connection
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $215k implies a 339% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,520
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12315 Pineview Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+4%)	17mo	$153,800	$97	56
5420 Sweetwater Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	9mo	$339,500	$210	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $148,047
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.83×
• Total profit: $411,464
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,684

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $215,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $220,000
18. 2026-04-03
    price $215,000
19. 2026-02-23
    price $220,000
20. 2026-01-21
    price $245,000
21. 2025-12-12
    listed $250,000 Active
22. 2025-12-11
    historical
23. 2025-08-26
    price $250,000
24. 2025-07-14
    price $265,000
25. 2025-06-11
    listed $279,000 Active
26. 2025-05-11
    historical
27. 2024-11-20
    listed $349,900 Active
28. 2024-08-16
    soldstatus $49,000 Closed
29. 2024-07-15
    status Pending
30. 2024-06-25
    price $52,800
31. 2024-06-25
    price $52,900
32. 2024-06-25
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,574/yr (+$214/mo · 189.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $2,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$589
• After-tax cash flow: $5,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+340.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $220,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $215,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $220,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $245,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-12 Listed $250,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-11 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $250,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $265,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-06-11 Listed $279,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-05-11 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-11-20 Listed $349,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-08-16 Sold (MLS) $49,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-07-15 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $52,800 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $52,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-06-25 Listed $49,900 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+147.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +1429.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.