2029 9th St · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77623

$44,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1978 0.26 ac lot $38/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

Key facts

• Two tracts
• Room for expansion
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• TWO TRACTS
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• UNIQUE PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: High Island School (math 42% / reading 42%, 151 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the High Island ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,040 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.35%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,514
• List price: $44,000
• Delta: -73.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2029 9th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	0mo	$44,000	$38	100
1461 Weeks Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+12%)	13mo	$290,000	$225	59
1384 Luke Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+12%)	18mo	$180,000	$139	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $42,165
• Equity at exit: $19,784

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.99×
• Total profit: $98,493
• Equity at exit: $30,490

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77623

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $609	-5% $594	+0% $579	+5% $563	+10% $548
Rent	-10% $490	-5% $534	+0% $579	+5% $623	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $590	base $579	+0.5pp $567	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $44,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

2. 2026-04-13
   price $49,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

3. 2026-04-08
   price $69,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

4. 2026-03-27
   price $79,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

5. 2026-03-17
   price $84,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

6. 2026-03-05
   price $89,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

7. 2026-02-23
   price $99,000 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

8. 2026-02-10
   listed $139,000 Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Investor opportunity in the coastal community of High Island, TX! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,152 sq. ft. of living space and sits on an oversized .43-acre lot consisting of two tracts, providing excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Located in an established neighborhood, the home features good bones and incredible curb appeal, but is in need of significant repairs and updating—ideal for renovation, flip, or long-term rental. The expansive lot offers room for expansion, outdoor living, or future development (buyer to verify). Enjoy proximity to the coast while unlocking the upside of this unique property. Bring your vision and capitalize on this rare opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $6,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $5,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 7% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-68.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $44,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $49,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $79,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $84,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $139,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,229 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.