8805 Lakeshore Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$275,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1979 0.31 ac lot $122/sqft · 45% below area Est $498k · 45% under · waterfront $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3 bedrm lakefront home located in the desirable community of Forest Lodge South. Situated on a large lot boasting 112 ft of water frontage on Lake Forest, this property offers your own private pier, perfect for enjoying outdoor activities. Home is in an estate & being sold "AS IS" presenting a fantastic opportunity to customize & make it your own - needs TLC. Spacious 1 story features 2 full baths & a 2 car garage w/workshop area. The sunroom, filled w/windows, allows for an abundance of natural light & offers sweeping views of the lake. The primary bath has been thoughtfully remodeled, showcasing a walk-in shower, dual sinks, granite counters & 2 walk-in closets. Kitchen is equipped w/solid surface countertops, providing excellent cabinet & counter space. While home offers plenty of potential, it is ready for your pesonal touch. Don't miss the chance to own this inviting lakeside retreat w/plenty of room for relaxation & entertaining. Home has gas heat & water heater

Key facts

• Large lot
• Natural light
• Private pier

Tags

• LAKEFRONT HOME
• PRIVATE PIER
• LARGE LOT
• SUNROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• REMODELED PRIMARY BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,369 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $497,955
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -44.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8805 Lakeshore Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,255 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$122	98
15761 Garden Ridge Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,046 (-9%)	4mo	$355,000	$174	56
15779 Garden Ridge Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,164 (-4%)	3mo	$335,990	$155	53
103 Ebner Lake Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,019 (-10%)	7mo	$539,000	$267	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,099
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-101,188
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $227,111

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-193	+0% $-271	+5% $-349	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-353	+0% $-271	+5% $-189	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-201	base $-271	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-05-03
   status Active 1041-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

   Welcome to this 3 bedrm lakefront home located in the desirable community of Forest Lodge South. Situated on a large lot boasting 112 ft of water frontage on Lake Forest, this property offers your own private pier, perfect for enjoying outdoor activities. Home is in an estate & being sold "AS IS" presenting a fantastic opportunity to customize & make it your own - needs TLC. Spacious 1 story features 2 full baths & a 2 car garage w/workshop area. The sunroom, filled w/windows, allows for an abundance of natural light & offers sweeping views of the lake. The primary bath has been thoughtfully remodeled, showcasing a walk-in shower, dual sinks, granite counters & 2 walk-in closets. Kitchen is equipped w/solid surface countertops, providing excellent cabinet & counter space. While home offers plenty of potential, it is ready for your pesonal touch. Don't miss the chance to own this inviting lakeside retreat w/plenty of room for relaxation & entertaining. Home has gas heat & water heater

10. 2026-04-25
    status Pending 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedrm lakefront home located in the desirable community of Forest Lodge South. Situated on a large lot boasting 112 ft of water frontage on Lake Forest, this property offers your own private pier, perfect for enjoying outdoor activities. Home is in an estate & being sold "AS IS" presenting a fantastic opportunity to customize & make it your own - needs TLC. Spacious 1 story features 2 full baths & a 2 car garage w/workshop area. The sunroom, filled w/windows, allows for an abundance of natural light & offers sweeping views of the lake. The primary bath has been thoughtfully remodeled, showcasing a walk-in shower, dual sinks, granite counters & 2 walk-in closets. Kitchen is equipped w/solid surface countertops, providing excellent cabinet & counter space. While home offers plenty of potential, it is ready for your pesonal touch. Don't miss the chance to own this inviting lakeside retreat w/plenty of room for relaxation & entertaining. Home has gas heat & water heater

11. 2026-04-21
    price $299,000 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedrm lakefront home located in the desirable community of Forest Lodge South. Situated on a large lot boasting 112 ft of water frontage on Lake Forest, this property offers your own private pier, perfect for enjoying outdoor activities. Home is in an estate & being sold "AS IS" presenting a fantastic opportunity to customize & make it your own - needs TLC. Spacious 1 story features 2 full baths & a 2 car garage w/workshop area. The sunroom, filled w/windows, allows for an abundance of natural light & offers sweeping views of the lake. The primary bath has been thoughtfully remodeled, showcasing a walk-in shower, dual sinks, granite counters & 2 walk-in closets. Kitchen is equipped w/solid surface countertops, providing excellent cabinet & counter space. While home offers plenty of potential, it is ready for your pesonal touch. Don't miss the chance to own this inviting lakeside retreat w/plenty of room for relaxation & entertaining. Home has gas heat & water heater

12. 2026-04-08
    listed $350,000 Active 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedrm lakefront home located in the desirable community of Forest Lodge South. Situated on a large lot boasting 112 ft of water frontage on Lake Forest, this property offers your own private pier, perfect for enjoying outdoor activities. Home is in an estate & being sold "AS IS" presenting a fantastic opportunity to customize & make it your own - needs TLC. Spacious 1 story features 2 full baths & a 2 car garage w/workshop area. The sunroom, filled w/windows, allows for an abundance of natural light & offers sweeping views of the lake. The primary bath has been thoughtfully remodeled, showcasing a walk-in shower, dual sinks, granite counters & 2 walk-in closets. Kitchen is equipped w/solid surface countertops, providing excellent cabinet & counter space. While home offers plenty of potential, it is ready for your pesonal touch. Don't miss the chance to own this inviting lakeside retreat w/plenty of room for relaxation & entertaining. Home has gas heat & water heater

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,170 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$863/yr (+$72/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,944
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $350,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,170 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.