311 Baywood St · Johnstown, PA 15901

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1905 1,742 sqft lot $40/sqft · 13% above area Est $35k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Johnstown's Woodvale section and the Greater Johnstown School District offers a practical layout and a cozy low-maintenance yard with room to add value. The first floor features a living room, dining area, and kitchen, while the second floor includes two bedrooms, a full bath, and a hallway leading to stairway access to the attic. The kitchen includes an over-the-range microwave, wood cabinets, a peninsula with cabinet space, and plenty of storage and counter space. The home also comes with a washer, dryer, refrigerator, and basement freezer, and it will be pressure tested and sewer compliant before closing. This home is ready to be made into a great home or r

Key facts

• 1,742 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story home; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $40k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.68%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,377
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: 13.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Maple Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$27,000	$26	82
536 Woodvale Ave	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,052 (+5%)	14mo	$26,500	$25	60
433 Figg Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,101 (+9%)	17mo	$45,000	$41	52
603 Woodvale Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+14%)	10mo	$24,000	$21	47
992 Cushon	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	950 (-6%)	12mo	$210,000	$221	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $21,278
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $54,310
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15901

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $447	+0% $436	+5% $424	+10% $413
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $400	+0% $436	+5% $471	+10% $507
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $446	base $436	+0.5pp $425	+1.0pp $415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Oak St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $40,000 Active 714-char remark
17. 1991-05-01
    soldstatus $5,000
18. 1986-06-01
    soldstatus $6,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,171
• After-tax cash flow: $4,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• City population: 30,791
• Population (ZIP): 3,466

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.41%
• Current HPI: 92.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+479.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $40,000 CSMLS
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $587 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.