516 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$187,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily · 582 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $134/sqft · 8% below area Est $204k · 8% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

More Space for Less! Introducing the Redwood plan, offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1800 sq. ft. of living space, complete with a flex room. All bedrooms are conveniently located upstairs. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a built-in microwave, and Shaker-style cabinets. This community provides the perfect balance of city proximity and peaceful living. As America’s Affordable Builder, we offer the best price and value in the area.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 581 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($867/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 582 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $165,431 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 582 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,804
• List price: $187,990
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,401 (0%)	0mo	$199,990	$143	94
526 Don Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,401 (0%)	11mo	$182,990	$131	90
512 Don Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+7%)	10mo	$249,900	$166	72
503 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,600 (+14%)	0mo	$199,990	$125	68
705 E South St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+2%)	11mo	$214,900	$150	65
104 Beard Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (+12%)	4mo	$130,000	$83	65
205 E South St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (+4%)	9mo	$219,900	$150	63
604 E South St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+10%)	4mo	$249,999	$163	62
604 S Aquilla St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-13%)	3mo	$245,000	$202	61
105 E North St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+7%)	4mo	$158,000	$105	47
301 S Lamar St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-13%)	7mo	$244,900	$201	47
104 S College St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-12%)	10mo	$99,999	$81	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $107,012
• Equity at exit: $169,356

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $311,567
• Equity at exit: $365,223

Cash invested: $52,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $205,000 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $187,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $137	+0% $72	+5% $7	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $4	+0% $72	+5% $141	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $120	base $72	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,998
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	93d	1	0.22mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	26d	1	0.41mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	93d	1	0.48mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	93d	1	0.56mi
501 E Monroe St Itasca, TX	3.0	1.0	1642	$1,800	$1.10	2d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $187,990 Active 582 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $187,990 Active 581 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $187,990 Active 580 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $187,990 Active 579 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $187,990 Active 578 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $187,990 Active 577 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $187,990 Active 574 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $187,990 Active 572 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $187,990 Active 570 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $187,990 Active 568 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $187,990 Active 567 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $187,990 Active 566 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $187,990 Active 565 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $187,990 Active 564 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $187,990 Active 563 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $187,990 Active 561 DOM
17. 2026-07-17
    days on market $187,990 Active 560 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $187,990 Active 559 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $187,990 Active 558 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $187,990 Active 557 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $187,990 Active 556 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $187,990 Active 555 DOM
23. 2026-07-12
    days on market $187,990 Active 554 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $187,990 Active 553 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $187,990 Active 552 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $187,990 Active 550 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $187,990 Active 549 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $187,990 Active 548 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $187,990 Active 547 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $187,990 Active 546 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $187,990 Active 545 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $187,990 Active 544 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $187,990 Active 543 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $187,990 Active 542 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $187,990 Active 541 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $187,990 Active 540 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $187,990 Active 539 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $187,990 Active 536 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $187,990 Active 535 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $187,990 Active 534 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $187,990 Active 533 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $187,990 Active 531 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $187,990 Active 530 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $187,990 Active 529 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $187,990 Active 528 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $187,990 Active 526 DOM
47. 2026-06-12
    days on market $187,990 Active 525 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $187,990 Active 522 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $187,990 Active 521 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $187,990 Active 520 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,530
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$2,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$543
• After-tax cash flow: $1,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,005–$21,015 screening

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value enhancement through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern or high-end fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with new, more durable materials can improve the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can significantly boost the home's curb appeal and value, both for resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Itasca El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Itasca Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Itasca H S F TX #1,106/1,632 Nat'l #11,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• County: Hill · 34,013 people
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719
• Household income: $77,627
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-06-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $199,990 NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-06-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $187,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $204,990 NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $204,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $189,490 NTREIS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $212,990 NTREIS
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $229,990 NTREIS
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Listed $219,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-03 Listed $219,990 NTREIS