27119 Seahorse Ln · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$189,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1990 0.76 ac lot $152/sqft · 12% below area Est $217k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming property set on nearly one acre of unrestricted land—perfect for those seeking peaceful country living with easy access to city amenities. Whether you’re looking to expand, build, or simply savor the open space, the possibilities are wide open. The home offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a welcoming front porch ideal for unwinding beneath the shade of mature trees. With a bit of TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine. Conveniently located near Highway 249 and close to shopping, dining, schools, and The Woodlands, this home blends quiet rural charm with everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to dining
• Unrestricted land

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED LAND
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,929
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -12.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26523 S Carrol Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+7%)	1mo	$219,900	$165	54
26706 Nichols Sawmill Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-9%)	15mo	$172,500	$151	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,425
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,034
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,446/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $263	+0% $209	+5% $156	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $135	+0% $209	+5% $284	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $258	base $209	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming property set on nearly one acre of unrestricted land—perfect for those seeking peaceful country living with easy access to city amenities. Whether you’re looking to expand, build, or simply savor the open space, the possibilities are wide open. The home offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a welcoming front porch ideal for unwinding beneath the shade of mature trees. With a bit of TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine. Conveniently located near Highway 249 and close to shopping, dining, schools, and The Woodlands, this home blends quiet rural charm with everyday convenience.

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $189,900 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming property set on nearly one acre of unrestricted land—perfect for those seeking peaceful country living with easy access to city amenities. Whether you’re looking to expand, build, or simply savor the open space, the possibilities are wide open. The home offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a welcoming front porch ideal for unwinding beneath the shade of mature trees. With a bit of TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine. Conveniently located near Highway 249 and close to shopping, dining, schools, and The Woodlands, this home blends quiet rural charm with everyday convenience.

16. 2025-10-08
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2021-02-09
    soldstatus
18. 2021-01-12
    soldstatus
19. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus
20. 2020-12-28
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2020-12-05
    status Pending
22. 2020-12-03
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,029/yr (+$86/mo · 42.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,446
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$136
• After-tax cash flow: $2,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+245.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2021-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-03 Listed $55,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,446 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.