10710 Shady Ln · Charles City, VA 23030

$149,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1940 1.98 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

VERBAL OFFER ACCEPTED. Waiting on all signatures. BACKUP OFFERS WILL BE ACCEPTED UP UNTIL CLOSING. Cozy cottage on 1.98 acres, just off the Virginia Capital Trail and awaiting your renovation. This 2 bedroom, one bath home offers a full front enclosed porch, mini-split hvac units in each room, newer architectural roof, large living room, large eat-in kitchen, and one bath. Home appears to be structurally sound. Roof and mini-split hvac units were installed in last three years. Lot is U-shaped and has two areas of road frontage. Home will not qualify for FHA or VA financing. Sold As-Is. CVRMLS As-Is Addendum must accompany all offers to be considered.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Large living room
• U-shaped lot

Tags

• FULL FRONT ENCLOSED PORCH
• MINI-SPLIT HVAC UNITS
• NEWER ARCHITECTURAL ROOF
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• U-SHAPED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#465 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Charles City County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #120 of 131 in VA (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Charles City County Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 315 students, 88% FRL); Charles City County High (math 22% / reading 72%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 247 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 52% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Charles City County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles City County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,953 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.81%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,744
• Equity at exit: $22,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,855
• Equity at exit: $12,965

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23030

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $437/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $351	+0% $308	+5% $266	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $248	+0% $308	+5% $368	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $346	base $308	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-18
   price $149,950
3. 2026-01-02
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $437 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 181.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$437
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $1,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$307
• After-tax cash flow: $3,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles City County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100720
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $49,978
• Composite: 34.36/100
• National rank: #5223
• State rank: #120 of 131 in VA

Livability — Charles City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #465
• US rank: #19907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,385
• Population (ZIP): 4,385

Population outlook (Charles City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,639 people
• By 2030: 6,338 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 5,597 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 4,769 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 3,762 · -43.3%
• By 2100: 3,200 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 41% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles City

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 54.9% · R 44.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 37.3pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+19.4 2016: D+23.0 2012: D+32.7 2008: D+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.25%
• Current HPI: 170.1704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $149,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $165,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.