628 Hickory St · Dayton, OH 45410

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1919 $35/sqft · 77% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be part of the active revitalization in this vibrant Historic South Park neighborhood. This cottage is almost 1,300 sq. ft. and is being sold by the Montgomery County LandBank. The roof was recently replaced and new gutters were added. The listing price includes the purchase of the house and a $19,000 84 Lumber siding package. Installation of historically accurate wood siding is required in this neighborhood. All exterior work must adhere to historical standards. The buyer will also receive architectural drawings if they should wish to use them. There are no mechanicals and the utilities are off. This rehab is not for the faint of heart but the neighborhood is highly sought after and conven

Key facts

• Siding package
• New gutters
• Low property taxes

Tags

• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• SIDING PACKAGE
• LOW PROPERTY TAXES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Cellar foundation
• Exterior features: Residential, historic zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.52%
• DSCR: 4.36
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,615
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -77.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Garret St	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,246 (-2%)	4mo	$173,000	$139	83
52 Clover St	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,230 (-3%)	2mo	$205,000	$167	82
109 James St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	4mo	$193,500	$161	79
566 Wyoming St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,290 (+2%)	1mo	$180,000	$140	70
17 Tecumseh St	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,294 (+2%)	3mo	$225,000	$174	69
519 Wyoming St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,240 (-2%)	3mo	$152,614	$123	67
12 Morton Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,379 (+8%)	0mo	$137,000	$99	63
147 Henry St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,159 (-9%)	1mo	$170,000	$147	62
16 Adams St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,182 (-7%)	3mo	$223,000	$189	58
129 Kastner Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-13%)	1mo	$35,000	$32	58
337 Clover St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-6%)	6mo	$120,000	$101	56
135 Drummer Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,400 (+10%)	5mo	$54,900	$39	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $51,168
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.2%
• Equity multiple: 12.57×
• Total profit: $145,766
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45410

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,576/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $818	-5% $806	+0% $793	+5% $780	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $675	-5% $734	+0% $793	+5% $852	+10% $911
Rate	-1.0pp $816	-0.5pp $804	base $793	+0.5pp $781	+1.0pp $769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 James St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,200	$0.71	45d	1	0.12mi
227 James St Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,200	$0.71	4d	1	0.14mi
229 James St Unit 228 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,200	$0.71	25d	1	0.14mi
25 Garret St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1364	$1,750	$1.28	25d	1	0.18mi
117 Clay St Unit 117 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1632	$1,950	$1.19	25d	1	0.31mi
425 Dayton Towers Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,799	$2.11	4d	30	0.32mi
213 Burns Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1388	$1,500	$1.08	15d	1	0.34mi
213 Burns Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1388	$1,500	$1.08	45d	1	0.34mi
218 Brown St Unit 218 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,200	$1.23	45d	1	0.34mi
218 Brown St Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,200	$1.78	45d	1	0.34mi
216 Brown St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1563	$2,500	$1.60	45d	1	0.34mi
243 Oak St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1316	$1,600	$1.22	4d	1	0.36mi
80 Green St Dayton, OH	2.0	2.5	1796	$2,200	$1.22	4d	1	0.40mi
519 Wyoming St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	45d	1	0.40mi
59 Green St Unit A Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	4d	1	0.45mi
322 S Patterson Blvd Unit 103 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	45d	1	0.50mi
500 E 3rd St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,660	$1.78	4d	16	0.66mi
31 Bidleman St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1568	$1,100	$0.70	45d	1	0.67mi
35 S Saint Clair St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,844	$2.01	4d	18	0.71mi
1020 Walnut Hill Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	0.71mi
1038 Walnut Hill Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,095	$0.89	45d	1	0.73mi
112 Webster St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$2,198	$2.74	4d	63	0.79mi
40 W 4th St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	45d	7	0.81mi
42 S Ludlow St Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,012	$1.18	45d	1	0.86mi
215 Ice Ave Unit 215 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	1218	$1,900	$1.56	45d	1	0.87mi
204 Sears St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0–2.5	1124	$2,228	$1.98	4d	10	0.88mi
100 N Jefferson St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,532	$1.92	4d	11	0.89mi
329 E 1st St Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	832	$1,405	$1.69	4d	15	0.91mi
20 Lucerne Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1378	$1,200	$0.87	45d	1	0.91mi
511 Parrot St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1618	$1,100	$0.68	15d	1	0.96mi
2200 E 5th St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$825	$0.82	25d	1	0.96mi
140 E Monument Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,952	$1.86	4d	11	1.02mi
1411 Wyoming St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,095	$0.87	4d	1	1.02mi
15 John St Unit 15 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$800	$0.67	25d	1	1.03mi
136 Indiana Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1194	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	1.08mi
2132 Wayne Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,350	$0.91	4d	1	1.08mi
1515 Wyoming St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	45d	1	1.11mi
313 Illinois Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1142	$975	$0.85	4d	1	1.11mi
534 Beckman St Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,400	$0.96	4d	1	1.11mi
16 Mello Ave Unit A Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	1000	$800	$0.80	15d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $45,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    listed $45,000 Active 1422-char remark
11. 1998-11-10
    soldstatus $53,400
12. 1986-02-18
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,576
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $9,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,259
• After-tax cash flow: $7,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 14,694
• Household income: $46,651
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.61%
• Current HPI: 369.3938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.37%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+429.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $45,000 Dayton MLS
• 1998-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $53,400 Public Records
• 1986-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2016): $1,576 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.