146 Old Route 940 · Pocono Pines, PA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 89°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 3/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 6.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.2/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +4.3/10.0
- Schools +4.0/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$179,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
* * * Back on Market with Repairs made * * * Upgraded and with no HOA in Pocono Lake! Welcome to this 3-bedroom detached home that has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Improvements within the last three years include a new kitchen featuring modern cabinetry, countertops, a tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy new vinyl flooring, fresh paint throughout, and new exterior doors and first-floor windows. Additional upgrades include a newer tankless water heater, and a brand-new covered back deck, all set on nearly half an acre of land.
Key facts
- New kitchen
- New exterior doors
- Modern cabinetry
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
- Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.1% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
- Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.42% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.22%
- Cash-on-cash
- 17.59%
- DSCR
- 1.78
- GRM
- 5.9
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 13.4%
- Equity multiple
- 1.59×
- Total profit
- $29,739
- Equity at exit
- $39,383
- IRR
- 20.0%
- Equity multiple
- 2.94×
- Total profit
- $97,507
- Equity at exit
- $38,002
Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 18347
- Home prices YoY
- -0.7%
- Active inventory
- 251
- Price-to-rent
- 5.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,549 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$943
- Tax from tax record
- −$257 /mo · $3,085/yr
- Insurance
- −$75
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$535
- Net cashflow
- $738
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $840 | -5% $789 | +0% $738 | +5% $687 | +10% $637 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $537 | -5% $638 | +0% $738 | +5% $839 | +10% $940 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $829 | -0.5pp $784 | base $738 | +0.5pp $692 | +1.0pp $644 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $44,975
- Closing costs
- $5,397
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 20 events
-
2026-04-28status Pending
-
2026-04-11status Active
-
2026-04-11price $179,900
-
2026-04-02status Pending
-
2026-03-23price $189,900
-
2026-03-21price $199,700
-
2026-03-10price $199,800
-
2026-03-06status Active
-
2026-03-06price $199,900
-
2026-01-28status Pending
-
2026-01-15price $204,800
-
2026-01-10price $204,900
-
2026-01-09price $209,800
-
2026-01-05price $209,900
-
2025-12-22price $214,800
-
2025-12-15price $214,900
-
2025-12-02price $219,600
-
2025-11-19price $219,700
-
2025-11-11price $219,800
-
2025-11-04$219,900 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,085 · $257/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,085 · $257/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,590
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,077
- − Property taxes
- −$3,085
- − Insurance
- −$900
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,447
- − Management
- −$2,447
- − Depreciation
- −$5,233
- Taxable income
- $6,400
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,536
- After-tax cash flow
- $7,324/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pocono Mountain SD
- NCES district ID
- 4219500
- Math proficiency
- 37% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $55,317
- Composite
- 39.91/100
- National rank
- #3856
- State rank
- #245 of 539 in PA
Livability — Pocono Pines
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #532
- US rank
- #4925
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Pocono Pines, PA
- City population
- 595
- Population (ZIP)
- 3,535
Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 164,099 people
- By 2030
- 161,412 · -1.6%
- By 2040
- 154,616 · -5.8%
- By 2050
- 146,710 · -10.6%
- By 2075
- 140,830 · -14.2%
- By 2100
- 138,472 · -15.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Monroe
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.47%
- Current HPI
- 202.3693
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
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| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
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| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
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Price history
-18.2% since first listed20 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-28 Pending — PMAR
- 2026-04-11 Relisted — PMAR
- 2026-04-11 Price Changed $179,900 PMAR
- 2026-04-02 Pending — PMAR
- 2026-03-23 Price Changed $189,900 PMAR
- 2026-03-21 Price Changed $199,700 PMAR
- 2026-03-10 Price Changed $199,800 PMAR
- 2026-03-06 Relisted — PMAR
- 2026-03-06 Price Changed $199,900 PMAR
- 2026-01-28 Pending — PMAR
- 2026-01-15 Price Changed $204,800 PMAR
- 2026-01-10 Price Changed $204,900 PMAR
- 2026-01-09 Price Changed $209,800 PMAR
- 2026-01-05 Price Changed $209,900 PMAR
- 2025-12-22 Price Changed $214,800 PMAR
- 2025-12-15 Price Changed $214,900 PMAR
- 2025-12-02 Price Changed $219,600 PMAR
- 2025-11-19 Price Changed $219,700 PMAR
- 2025-11-11 Price Changed $219,800 PMAR
- 2025-11-04 Listed $219,900 PMAR
Property tax history
+3.3%/yrLatest (2026): $3,085 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…