150278 Arizona · Big River, CA 92242

$229,999

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1972 0.52 ac lot ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

An amazing Spanish-style river home offering 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, this property delivers charm, space, and functionality in every direction. Mature landscaping frames the classic tile-roof architecture, creating a warm and timeless first impression. A beautifully inviting circular driveway leads to the show-stopping oversized finished 40' x 23' garage, perfect for boats, off road toys, vehicles, or workshop needs. The home also features a giant craft room with inside laundry and its own separate entrance, making it ideal for hobbies, guests, or flexible living. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy and room to relax, while the privately fenced side yard includes two darling air-

Key facts

• Giant craft room
• Circular driveway
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• SPANISH STYLE RIVER HOME
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED FINISHED GARAGE
• GIANT CRAFT ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATELY FENCED SIDE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No accessory dwelling unit (ADU); No common walls (detached); Community offers watersports, biking, fishing, parks; property described as rural
• Financial info: Annual land lease payment of $87; land lease renewal February 20, 2029; $5 land lease transfer fee
• HOA & community: Land lease in place

Exterior

• Parking: Detached and attached garage options including tandem and oversized spaces; Direct garage access; Garage with single door configuration; Concrete driveway with circular drive; RV access/parking; Workshop space and additional parking spaces (4 total)
• Security: Smoke detector
• Utilities: Standard electric service; electricity connected; Natural gas not available; Water connected (district/public); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story house; One-level entry
• Construction: Built with stucco; Clay and flat roof sections; Concrete slab foundation; Additions/alterations noted
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Covered and screened porch; front and rear porch; Patio and deck with slab; Storage building and outbuilding; Chain-link fencing in excellent condition; Sprinklers (front yard); Landscaped, level lot with street-level access

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen with granite counters; Refrigerator; Microwave; Free-standing and electric range options; Dishwasher; Separate eating area
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms; Main-floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on the main level; Walk-in closet; Room adaptable as art studio
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks; Separate tub and shower in at least one bath; Exhaust fans
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Heat pump; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Partially furnished; Built-in storage; Recessed lighting; Smoke detector; Double-pane windows with drapes/curtains and blinds; One-level living; main entry at the front of the house
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Interior laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#327 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,200 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $93,509
• Equity at exit: $163,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $264,124
• Equity at exit: $313,742

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92242

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,781

Max offer price $229,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $216	+0% $151	+5% $86	+10% $21
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $73	+0% $151	+5% $229	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $210	base $151	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,999 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,999 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,999 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,999 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,999 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,999 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,999 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,999 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,999 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,999 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $229,999 Active
18. 2025-02-25
    historical
19. 2025-01-31
    listed $295,000 Active
20. 2025-01-31
    historical
21. 2025-01-07
    price $295,000
22. 2024-08-27
    listed $359,000 Active
23. 2024-08-07
    historical
24. 2024-06-30
    price $375,000
25. 2024-04-22
    price $359,000
26. 2024-04-22
    status Active
27. 2024-04-22
    price $350,000
28. 2024-04-04
    historical
29. 2024-02-10
    listed $379,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $2,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Big River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #11065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big River, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,203

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.26%
• Current HPI: 183.526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-39.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $229,999 CRMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed $359,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-30 Price Changed $375,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $359,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-02-10 Listed $379,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.