140 Heritage Forest Pkwy · Dripping Springs, TX 78620

$397,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,195 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 5,052 sqft lot $181/sqft · 20% below area Est $499k · 20% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this stylish and thoughtfully designed new residence at 140 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 generous bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,195 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with easy access to area favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social areas of the. .. MLS# 4209925

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Flexible spaces
• Ample counter space

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• FLEXIBLE SPACES
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• OFFICE AREA
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Heritage) with annual fee; Association fee $600 annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance; Community amenities: pool, playground, park, dog park, trails/paths, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxes, common grounds, suburban setting, internet access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces; Concrete driveway; Garage faces front; Garage door opener; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Security: Pre-wired security; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; High speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: New construction, 2-story home; Builder: M/I Homes; East-facing; Slab foundation; Residence structure
• Construction: Brick and stone accents with cement/HardiPlank siding; Blown-in insulation; Shingle/composition roof
• Exterior features: Private, fenced backyard with wood privacy fence and gate; No exterior steps; Covered patio/porch; Security pre-wiring, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors; In-wall pest control system; Exterior lighting; Landscaped yard with sprinklers (front, rear, side) and rain sensor; Small trees; Close to clubhouse; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Self-cleaning oven; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Exhaust/vented exhaust fan; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Ceiling fan(s) in at least one bedroom (second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanity in one bathroom (second level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Zoned heating; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment; Central air conditioning; Dual/electric cooling; Zoned cooling; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fan(s); High ceilings; Vaulted ceiling(s); Interior steps; Pantry; Low flow plumbing fixtures; Smart thermostat; Wired for data and sound; High speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; In-hall laundry; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-547 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.1% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Springs El (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 887 students, 13% FRL); Dripping Springs Middle (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 882 students, 0% FRL); Dripping Springs H S (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,433 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 765 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,192 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,224
• List price: $397,990
• Delta: -20.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
394 Bishop Wood Rd	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,175 (-1%)	2mo	$493,990	$227	80
139 Great Sequoia Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,951 (-11%)	2mo	$424,241	$217	71
458 Bishop Wood Rd	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (+3%)	2mo	$499,990	$222	70
1107 Lucca Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,955 (-11%)	2mo	$485,000	$248	70
344 Milkwood Ter	0.22mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,362 (+8%)	1mo	$489,985	$207	67
380 Heritage Forest Pkwy	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,495 (+14%)	1mo	$536,393	$215	67
126 Buckthorn Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,153 (-2%)	1mo	$359,900	$167	67
587 Bishop Wood Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,289 (+4%)	0mo	$424,990	$186	66
134 Big Banyan Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (-11%)	2mo	$434,990	$223	60
578 Darley Oak Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,963 (-11%)	1mo	$429,990	$219	58
296 Bishop Wood Rd	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+11%)	1mo	$504,990	$207	57
326 Bishop Wood Rd	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+11%)	2mo	$554,990	$228	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-102,685
• Equity at exit: $59,342

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-147,640
• Equity at exit: $34,411

Cash invested: $111,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78620

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 765
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,852 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,970/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,545

Max offer price $318,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-410	+0% $-547	+5% $-685	+10% $-822
Rent	-10% $-773	-5% $-660	+0% $-547	+5% $-435	+10% $-322
Rate	-1.0pp $-347	-0.5pp $-446	base $-547	+0.5pp $-651	+1.0pp $-755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,498
• Closing costs: $11,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
468 Milkwood Ter Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,450	$1.65	45d	1	0.13mi
134 Big Banyan Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.30mi
358 Darley Oak Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2543	$3,250	$1.28	19d	1	0.31mi
394 Bishop Wood Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2182	$3,200	$1.47	25d	1	0.36mi
435 Hays St Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$5,250	$2.69	45d	1	0.60mi
115 Iron Rail Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.62mi
253 Spanish Star Trl Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.64mi
106 Buckthorn Dr Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2258	$2,450	$1.09	6d	1	0.65mi
160 Loving Trl Unit B Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2760	$2,075	$0.75	25d	1	0.71mi
210 Dome Peak Ter Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,700	$1.64	45d	1	0.85mi
787 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2319	$2,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.91mi
856 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1948	$2,550	$1.31	14d	1	0.99mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	25d	1	1.06mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	1.06mi
319 Pecos River Xing Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,500	$1.62	19d	1	1.07mi
779 Founders Rdg Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2123	$3,300	$1.55	4d	1	1.08mi
1282 S Rob Shelton Blvd Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,756	$2.80	0d	47	1.18mi
500 Harmon Hills Cv Unit B Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,500	$1.71	45d	1	1.35mi
386 El Capitan Loop Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2047	$2,900	$1.42	19d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $397,990 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $397,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $397,990 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $397,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $397,990 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $397,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $406,990 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

   Step inside this stylish and thoughtfully designed new residence at 140 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 generous bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,195 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with easy access to area favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social areas of the. .. MLS# 4209925

10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $406,990 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $406,990 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $406,990 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $406,990 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $406,990 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $406,990 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $406,990 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $412,990 Active 790-char remark
18. 2026-04-21
    price $412,990 1485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

    Step inside this stylish and thoughtfully designed new residence at 140 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 generous bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,195 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with easy access to area favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social areas of the. .. MLS# 4209925

19. 2026-03-11
    listed $439,990 Active 1485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

    Step inside this stylish and thoughtfully designed new residence at 140 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 generous bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,195 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with easy access to area favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social areas of the. .. MLS# 4209925

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,294
• − Property taxes: −$5,970
• − Insurance: −$1,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,738
• − Management: −$2,738
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,578
• Taxable loss: −$13,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dripping Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800008
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,367
• Composite: 54.5/100
• National rank: #1347
• State rank: #41 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dripping Springs, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 22,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,860
• Household income: $153,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.51%
• Current HPI: 308.2387
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $397,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $397,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $406,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $406,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $412,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $412,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $439,990 Zillow