The Carlsbad (345) Plan · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$210,040

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily · 193 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. With four bedrooms, you can customize the Carlsbad's layout to meet your family's needs. In the kitchen, the useful island and large pantry help simplify mealtimes.

Key facts

• Useful island
• Large pantry
• Home office

Tags

• HOME OFFICE
• LARGE PANTRY
• USEFUL ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $210,040 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,015.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,835 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.41%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,015
• List price: $210,040
• Delta: -11.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31031 Perdido Valley Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,557 (0%)	1mo	$224,040	$144	92
1211 Romany Fields Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+8%)	0mo	$228,940	$136	82
1224 Romany Fields Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+8%)	1mo	$259,240	$154	81
31027 De La Guerra St	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+8%)	1mo	$234,240	$139	80
1219 Romany Flds	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+8%)	3mo	$224,240	$133	80
1212 Romany Fields Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+8%)	3mo	$246,990	$146	78
1204 Romany Fields Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,688 (+8%)	3mo	$247,240	$146	78
31029 Perdido Valley Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	3mo	$209,590	$147	72
31024 Perdido Valley Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	3mo	$204,940	$144	70
31027 Perdido Valley Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-10%)	3mo	$209,540	$149	69
31032 Perdido Valley Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-10%)	3mo	$209,540	$149	68
1114 Novelle Bend Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,674 (+8%)	2mo	$388,000	$232	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-29,757
• Equity at exit: $35,191

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,890
• Equity at exit: $20,406

Cash invested: $66,084 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,540/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,065

Max offer price $236,015

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,004
• Closing costs: $7,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.85mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,040 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $210,040 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,040 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,040 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,040 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,040 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,040 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,040 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,040 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,040 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $214,040 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $213,040 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $213,040 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $213,040 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $212,040 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. With four bedrooms, you can customize the Carlsbad's layout to meet your family's needs. In the kitchen, the useful island and large pantry help simplify mealtimes.

16. 2025-12-19
    price $209,040 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. With four bedrooms, you can customize the Carlsbad's layout to meet your family's needs. In the kitchen, the useful island and large pantry help simplify mealtimes.

17. 2025-12-07
    listed $226,040 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. With four bedrooms, you can customize the Carlsbad's layout to meet your family's needs. In the kitchen, the useful island and large pantry help simplify mealtimes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,221
• − Property taxes: −$3,540
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$6,866
• Taxable loss: −$2,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The Carlsbad home requires moderate updates, primarily focusing on painting and window treatments to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Window treatments — Updated window treatments improve privacy and add value for renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears slightly faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Window treatments — Updated window treatments improve privacy and add value for renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $212,040 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $209,040 Zillow
• 2025-12-07 Listed $226,040 Zillow