Residence 1 Plan · French Valley, CA 92596

$529,790

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,711 sqft · SingleFamily · 486 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 485 days

🏗️ New construction. The $529,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $568,497.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lisa J. Mails Elementary (1,019 students, 37% FRL); Dorothy Mcelhinney Middle (1,396 students, 44% FRL); Vista Murrieta High (3,493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $333,869 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $568,497
• List price: $529,790
• Delta: -6.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31550 Alicante Loop	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,775 (+4%)	8mo	$535,000	$301	77
34502 Silky Dogwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,691 (-1%)	7mo	$645,000	$381	69
31602 Cobalite Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,856 (+8%)	13mo	$591,790	$319	63
35591 Denver	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+8%)	4mo	$590,000	$318	60
35246 Slater Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,843 (+8%)	10mo	$690,000	$374	59
31628 Loire	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (-2%)	1mo	$625,000	$371	58
31532 Alicante Loop	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,925 (+12%)	13mo	$554,000	$288	58
31579 Mccartney Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+8%)	3mo	$592,000	$319	55
34701 Portarosa St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,945 (+14%)	2mo	$640,000	$329	52
31159 Janelle Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,843 (+8%)	12mo	$619,000	$336	45
31493 Darlington Oak Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,945 (+14%)	11mo	$653,500	$336	45
34865 Sweet Bells Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,945 (+14%)	10mo	$649,000	$334	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $217,648
• Equity at exit: $512,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $688,188
• Equity at exit: $1,104,465

Cash invested: $159,179 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,981
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$711 /mo · $8,527/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $-1,291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,973

Max offer price $381,660

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-898	-5% $-1,095	+0% $-1,291	+5% $-1,488	+10% $-1,684
Rent	-10% $-1,555	-5% $-1,423	+0% $-1,291	+5% $-1,159	+10% $-1,027
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,005	-0.5pp $-1,147	base $-1,291	+0.5pp $-1,439	+1.0pp $-1,588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,124
• Closing costs: $17,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	23d	1	0.03mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	18d	1	0.06mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	0d	1	0.30mi
34875 Pourroy Rd Winchester, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,980	$3.05	0d	1	0.37mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	12d	1	0.96mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	19d	1	0.96mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	26d	1	0.96mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	19d	1	1.17mi
36308 Cosimo Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,695	$1.74	21d	1	1.25mi
32330 Shrimp Ln Unit A Winchester, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,595	$2.16	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $529,790 Active 486 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $529,790 Active 485 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $529,790 Active 484 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   status Active 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

5. 2026-02-14
   historical 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

6. 2025-07-10
   price $529,790 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

7. 2025-06-29
   price $539,990 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

8. 2025-06-14
   price $550,390 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

9. 2025-06-07
   price $540,390 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

10. 2025-05-17
    price $526,790 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

11. 2025-03-18
    price $535,790 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

12. 2025-03-11
    price $547,390 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

13. 2025-02-22
    price $535,790 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

14. 2025-01-25
    price $537,390 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

15. 2025-01-11
    price $517,790 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

16. 2024-12-21
    price $514,790 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

17. 2024-12-13
    price $527,390 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

18. 2024-11-22
    price $525,790 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

19. 2024-11-04
    listed $517,990 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan with convenient access to an outdoor patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share the second floor with the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-bay garage completes the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,845
• − Property taxes: −$8,527
• − Insurance: −$2,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,205
• − Management: −$3,205
• − Depreciation: −$16,538
• Taxable loss: −$26,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,264
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $529,790 Zillow
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $539,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $550,390 Zillow
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $540,390 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $526,790 Zillow
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $535,790 Zillow
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $547,390 Zillow
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $535,790 Zillow
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $537,390 Zillow
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $517,790 Zillow
• 2024-12-21 Price Changed $514,790 Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $527,390 Zillow
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $525,790 Zillow
• 2024-11-04 Listed $517,990 Zillow