28833 Mistletoe Ave · Warsaw, MO 65355

$147,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 1977 0.44 ac lot Est $186k · 21% under $5/mo HOA ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this extremely well maintained 4 bedroom / 1 bath home located inside the lake community of Paradise Point on the 84 mm of the Lake of the Ozarks! This property comes with a waterfront lot across the road large enough to add a dock. Sellers have made multiple improvements over the years creating the perfect weekend retreat! Ample off-street parking to accommodate your friends and family when they visit. Covered back deck along with storage shed for your lake toys. Yard has been beautifully landscaped with rose bushes, Hasta's and Iris'. This one really deserves a look!

Key facts

• Covered back deck
• Storage shed
• Landscaped yard

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOT
• COVERED BACK DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $139,026 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28633 Mistletoe Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,188 (+2%)	24mo	$190,000	$160	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $43,985
• Equity at exit: $87,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $126,125
• Equity at exit: $155,165

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $147,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-08-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-31
   price $147,900
3. 2025-07-08
   price $155,000
4. 2025-05-19
   listed $160,000 Active
5. 2024-09-22
   historical
6. 2024-08-23
   price $175,000
7. 2024-07-30
   status Active
8. 2024-07-21
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2024-06-19
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable loss: −$1,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-16 Pending — WCAR
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $147,900 WCAR
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $155,000 WCAR
• 2025-05-19 Listed $160,000 WCAR
• 2024-09-22 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $175,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-21 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-19 Listed $185,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid