3026 Fm 593 · Gilmer, TX 75644

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2019 1.50 ac lot $142/sqft · 20% below area Est $373k · 20% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2019, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath barndominium sits on approximately 1.5 acres in Gilmer ISD. The home features an open concept floor plan with a spacious living area that flows into the kitchen and dining space, offering flexibility for a variety of uses. Bedrooms are well proportioned, and the primary suite includes a private bathroom. Additional features include a covered back patio and a fenced backyard, providing defined outdoor space. The property offers a combination of modern construction and acreage, with room for outdoor activities, storage, or future improvements. Located in a rural setting with convenient access to Gilmer and surrounding East Texas communities.

Key facts

• Modern construction
• Covered back patio
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• MODERN CONSTRUCTION
• RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-800 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (46.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,639 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.47%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,966
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -19.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2888 FM 593	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+10%)	10mo	$379,900	$165	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $111,893
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $369,619
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,333/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $157,639

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-631	-5% $-716	+0% $-800	+5% $-885	+10% $-969
Rent	-10% $-926	-5% $-863	+0% $-800	+5% $-738	+10% $-675
Rate	-1.0pp $-650	-0.5pp $-724	base $-800	+0.5pp $-878	+1.0pp $-957

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-04-17
    price $299,000 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Built in 2019, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath barndominium sits on approximately 1.5 acres in Gilmer ISD. The home features an open concept floor plan with a spacious living area that flows into the kitchen and dining space, offering flexibility for a variety of uses. Bedrooms are well proportioned, and the primary suite includes a private bathroom. Additional features include a covered back patio and a fenced backyard, providing defined outdoor space. The property offers a combination of modern construction and acreage, with room for outdoor activities, storage, or future improvements. Located in a rural setting with convenient access to Gilmer and surrounding East Texas communities.

20. 2026-02-09
    listed $320,000 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Built in 2019, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath barndominium sits on approximately 1.5 acres in Gilmer ISD. The home features an open concept floor plan with a spacious living area that flows into the kitchen and dining space, offering flexibility for a variety of uses. Bedrooms are well proportioned, and the primary suite includes a private bathroom. Additional features include a covered back patio and a fenced backyard, providing defined outdoor space. The property offers a combination of modern construction and acreage, with room for outdoor activities, storage, or future improvements. Located in a rural setting with convenient access to Gilmer and surrounding East Texas communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,333 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,139/yr (+$95/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,333
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$15,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,668
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $299,000 LAAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $320,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,333 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.