Is 6569 Firefly Dr in Bagdad, FL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.5% cap rate and $-158/mo modeled cash flow at a $237,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 6569 Firefly Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,082/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 38.92

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.9/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.6/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
DSCR +2.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$237,900

6569 Firefly Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Rivers Cove community offers residents: Gorgeous Community Pool, Community Center and a nice Community Playground. The new 'CALLAWAY' floorplan is a charming Florida cottage style home with no wasted space, a desirable open design for relaxed living. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Easy care beautiful wood-look flooring, delightful kitchen with stainless appliances, quiet dishwasher, smooth top range, built in microwave and pantry. Also included is Fabric hurricane door/window protection and a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient Smart Home Devices you will enjoy. ALL LISTING pictures, colors, features, and size may vary. Square footages are approximate.

Key facts

Covered front porch
Pantry
Under-mount sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (3.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (12.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $208k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 1157 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $208,234 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 5.54%
Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
DSCR: 0.88
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $252,898
List price: $237,900
Delta: -5.14%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6517 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	2mo	$234,900	$195	98
6509 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$244,900	$203	97
6497 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$239,900	$199	97
6489 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$249,900	$207	95
6481 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$203	94
6473 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	7mo	$244,900	$203	94
6449 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	8mo	$245,000	$203	93
6461 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$240,000	$199	92
6333 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	12mo	$254,900	$212	90
6333 Firefly Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	12mo	$254,900	$212	77
4331 Audiss Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-4%)	5mo	$220,000	$191	76
6333 Rice St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	7mo	$250,000	$206	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -19.0%
Equity multiple: 0.33×
Total profit: $-47,703
Equity at exit: $37,708

10-year hold

IRR: -8.6%
Equity multiple: 0.43×
Total profit: $-40,427
Equity at exit: $21,866

Cash invested: $70,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 25 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $245,000 ($202/sqft)
Median days on market: 112 d
This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32583

Home prices YoY: -11.3%
Rents YoY: 4.5%
Active inventory: 1157
Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,082 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,793/yr
Insurance: −$105
HOA: −$55
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $230,083

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-70	+0% $-158	+5% $-245	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-240	+0% $-158	+5% $-75	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-93	base $-158	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $63,225
Closing costs: $7,587
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	117d	1	0.24mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	119d	1	0.88mi
6436 Highway 90 Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	675	$1,675	$2.48	0d	7	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Building area approximately 1,205 square feet
HOA & community: HOA present with annual fee (association fee applies)Community amenities include a pool, community room, and sidewalks

Exterior

Parking: Driveway with open parking
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
Home design: Single-story homeDetached propertyUnder construction / New construction
Construction: Frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026 (new construction)
Exterior features: Front porchInterior lotPaved private-maintained road

Interior

Kitchen: Laminate countersPantryBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherElectric water heater
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.7' x 11.4')
Flooring: Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsNew construction — bathrooms not yet updated
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: BaseboardsDouble pane and storm windows with shutters
Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

HOA detail $55/mo · $660/yr

Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $237,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $237,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $237,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $237,900 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $237,900 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $237,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $237,900 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $239,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $239,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $239,900 Active 91 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $239,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $239,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $239,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $239,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $239,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $239,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-03

pricedays on market $239,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-31

pricedays on market $244,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $249,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $249,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $249,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $249,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $249,900 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $249,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $249,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $249,900 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $249,900 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $249,900 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $249,900 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $249,900 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $249,900 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $249,900 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $249,900 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,988
− Mortgage interest: −$14,166
− Property taxes: −$3,793
− Insurance: −$1,264
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
− Management: −$1,999
− HOA: −$660
− Depreciation: −$7,357
Taxable loss: −$6,251

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,500
After-tax cash flow: $-392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,025–$18,075 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a few cosmetic updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bagdad Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hobbs Middle School C FL #254/571 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Milton High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Santa Rosa
NCES district ID: 1201650
Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $58,161
Composite: 53.12/100
National rank: #1511
State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Bagdad

Score: 67/100
State rank: #571
US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Bagdad, FL
County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
Population (ZIP): 31,828
Household income: $85,440
Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 195,978 people
By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
Current HPI: 301.8819
Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Technology	2	$29B
#159 Carrier Global Palm Beach Gardens $22.2B #376 Roper Technologies Sarasota $6.8B
Insurance	2	$17B
#348 Fidelity National Financial Jacksonville $12.1B #494 Brown & Brown Daytona Beach $4.6B
Retail	1	$60B
#71 Publix Super Markets Lakeland $60.2B
Technology Distribution	1	$58B
#73 TD Synnex Clearwater $58.5B
Homebuilding	1	$35B
#185 Lennar Miami $35.4B
Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B
#122 Jabil St. Petersburg $34.7B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-07-01 Price Changed $249,900 PARMLS
2026-07-01 Price Changed $249,900 ECAR
2026-06-22 Listed $255,900 ECAR
2026-06-16 Listed $255,900 PARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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