20314 Pomegranate Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2002 6,407 sqft lot $134/sqft · 9% below area Est $291k · 9% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting single-family home in Katy, TX. This well-maintained traditional-style residence offers a comfortable lifestyle with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1980 square feet of living space. The open floor plan includes two living areas, a dining room, and a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining. The Master retreat features two walk-in closets, and outside, you'll find a large backyard. Conveniently located near major highways and shopping centers, this home combines traditional design with modern convenience. Don't miss the chance to call this lovely house your new home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by KPM Management; Annual association fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Greenbelt; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Living and dining room layout; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 27% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,122 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.59%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,673
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 1.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20418 Cherry Haven Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,014 (+2%)	3mo	$275,000	$137	86
3207 Rainhill Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,890 (-4%)	1mo	$280,000	$148	61
20426 Blue Juniper Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,762 (-11%)	4mo	$255,000	$145	58
21363 Bandera Ranch Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (-5%)	4mo	$275,000	$146	55
3139 Redgum Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,060 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$170	54
2710 Mustang Hill Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,148 (+8%)	4mo	$295,000	$137	53
2614 Ash Haven Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,862 (-6%)	0mo	$290,000	$156	52
20930 Dover Mist Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,749 (-12%)	3mo	$310,000	$177	50
20907 Dover Mist Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,187 (+10%)	2mo	$315,000	$144	48
20119 Golden Mesa Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,834 (-7%)	6mo	$261,500	$143	46
20322 Eagle Nest Fls	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,220 (+12%)	2mo	$305,000	$137	46
2739 Mustang Hill Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-14%)	3mo	$249,900	$148	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-58,790
• Equity at exit: $60,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-93,493
• Equity at exit: $60,695

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$523 /mo · $6,277/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $182,122

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-319	-5% $-394	+0% $-469	+5% $-544	+10% $-619
Rent	-10% $-628	-5% $-549	+0% $-469	+5% $-390	+10% $-310
Rate	-1.0pp $-336	-0.5pp $-402	base $-469	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2503 Silver Trumpet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,791	$1.29	12d	1	0.46mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	25d	1	0.57mi
2203 Wheathall Camp Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,745	$1.25	44d	1	0.61mi
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	44d	1	0.62mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	44d	1	0.71mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	3d	1	0.74mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	25d	1	0.74mi
20926 Hamlet Ridge Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,195	$0.89	25d	1	0.75mi
3427 W Rainmill Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,850	$1.24	25d	1	0.83mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	2d	39	0.84mi
20114 Fort Stanton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2533	$1,951	$0.77	44d	1	0.97mi
2000 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,857	$1.81	3d	16	1.10mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	6d	1	1.10mi
20070 N Navaho Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,695	$1.24	22d	1	1.15mi
1806 Usher Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2568	$2,350	$0.92	21d	1	1.23mi
1562 N Westgreen Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	44d	1	1.27mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	17d	1	1.27mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	6d	1	1.28mi
20104 Park Row Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,309	$1.06	44d	1	1.36mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1583 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,974	$1.18	44d	1	1.37mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW4 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,639	$1.33	6d	1	1.37mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW5 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	3d	1	1.37mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,963	$1.18	11d	1	1.37mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,931	$1.16	3d	1	1.37mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	44d	1	1.37mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	20d	1	1.45mi
1550 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $295,000 Active 596-char remark
15. 2025-08-12
    historical $1,950
16. 2025-08-01
    historical
17. 2025-07-30
    listed $1,950
18. 2025-07-29
    historical $1,950
19. 2025-07-11
    listed $1,950
20. 2025-07-06
    price $275,000
21. 2025-05-28
    price $280,000
22. 2025-05-01
    listed $299,900 Active
23. 2024-09-30
    historical
24. 2024-09-27
    historical $1,850
25. 2024-08-30
    price $300,000
26. 2024-08-30
    price $290,000
27. 2024-08-16
    price $1,850
28. 2024-08-02
    price $1,950
29. 2024-07-25
    listed $2,100
30. 2024-07-24
    price $300,000
31. 2024-06-26
    listed $310,000 Active
32. 2024-06-26
    historical
33. 2024-06-04
    price $310,000
34. 2024-05-16
    listed $325,000 Active
35. 2023-04-25
    historical
36. 2023-04-07
    listed $305,000 Active
37. 2007-01-11
    soldstatus
38. 2006-05-31
    historical
39. 2005-11-29
    listed $130,000
40. 2005-02-24
    historical
41. 2005-01-20
    listed $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,277 · $523/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,277 · $523/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,277
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$10,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+103.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Rental Removed $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed for Rent $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-07-29 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2024-07-24 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-07 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2007-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-11-29 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2005-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-01-20 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,277 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.