18586 N Lariat Rd · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$310,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2012 5,401 sqft lot $141/sqft · 11% below area Est $349k · 11% under $99/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Located next to Pacana Park in the desirable Glennwilde Groves and within walking distance of community pools, playgrounds, tennis courts, and more, this home brings together recreation, comfort, and energy efficiency. .. . everything today's buyer desires! Beautifully updated and renovated in 2024 with new tile and wood flooring, fresh designer paint, and stylish finishes throughout. The chef's kitchen showcases cherry cabinetry, granite countertops, newer stainless-steel appliances, and a gas range — refrigerator, washer, and dryer included! Bright, open-concept living and dining areas make entertaining effortless, while upstairs features spacious rooms and a convenient laundry spa

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Saddleback Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 795 students, 56% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $224k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,739 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,198
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -11.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18382 N Arbor Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,250 (+2%)	0mo	$340,000	$151	82
18190 N Stonegate Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,162 (-2%)	3mo	$425,000	$197	67
16825 N Ibis Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,450 (+12%)	2mo	$437,990	$179	66
19138 N Stonegate Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,287 (+4%)	0mo	$486,000	$213	63
42497 W Ramirez Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,248 (+2%)	0mo	$345,000	$153	62
42222 W Almira Ct	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,515 (+14%)	3mo	$495,000	$197	55
18307 N Presley Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-13%)	1mo	$324,000	$170	54
43653 W Cypress Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,357 (+7%)	1mo	$350,000	$148	54
19038 N Arbor Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,515 (+14%)	4mo	$435,000	$173	54
43573 W Blazen Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,938 (-12%)	1mo	$287,000	$148	42
43833 W Acacia Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-13%)	0mo	$330,000	$174	40
43818 W Acacia Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-13%)	3mo	$330,000	$174	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-46,390
• Equity at exit: $76,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-52,413
• Equity at exit: $81,771

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,441/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,604

Max offer price $249,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-257	+0% $-345	+5% $-433	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-431	+0% $-345	+5% $-259	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-189	-0.5pp $-266	base $-345	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	0.11mi
18426 N Lariat Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2567	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	0.14mi
42725 W Martie Lynn Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,015	$1.34	26d	1	0.33mi
18967 N Leland Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2275	$1,000	$0.44	6d	1	0.37mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	26d	1	0.39mi
43205 W Jeremy St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	0.39mi
43194 W Jeremy St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2424	$1,699	$0.70	45d	1	0.40mi
43361 W Elizabeth Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,795	$1.19	25d	1	0.45mi
18184 N Calacera St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	18d	1	0.46mi
43371 W Elizabeth Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,739	$0.76	45d	1	0.46mi
18283 N Presley Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2156	$2,000	$0.93	26d	1	0.47mi
43250 W Estrada St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2349	$1,950	$0.83	26d	1	0.49mi
43269 W Arizona Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	45d	1	0.56mi
43386 W Arizona Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2274	$1,839	$0.81	14d	1	0.62mi
43386 W Arizona Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2274	$1,839	$0.81	23d	1	0.62mi
43410 W Wild Horse Trl Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2349	$1,845	$0.79	13d	1	0.68mi
43760 W Cypress Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2142	$2,000	$0.93	45d	1	0.76mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	5d	1	0.78mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	45d	1	0.78mi
43811 W Elizabeth Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,550	$1.03	0d	1	0.79mi
43814 W Cypress Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2170	$2,095	$0.97	45d	1	0.79mi
43223 W Neely Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2223	$2,900	$1.30	18d	1	0.80mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	45d	1	0.80mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	26d	1	0.80mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	13d	1	0.81mi
41342 W Capistrano Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2201	$1,800	$0.82	7d	1	0.83mi
42246 W Balsa Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,679	$1.06	45d	1	0.87mi
41261 W Laramie Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2691	$1,895	$0.70	14d	1	0.91mi
43368 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,889	$0.86	45d	1	0.91mi
41177 W Lucera Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1838	$1,875	$1.02	7d	1	0.93mi
43531 W Oster Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	2494	$1,900	$0.76	26d	1	1.01mi
19680 N Ortman Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1975	$1,700	$0.86	4d	1	1.11mi
41363 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,739	$1.09	45d	1	1.16mi
44151 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2604	$2,350	$0.90	20d	1	1.21mi
19696 N Madison Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2219	$3,400	$1.53	26d	1	1.22mi
43332 W Griffis Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2235	$4,200	$1.88	45d	1	1.23mi
16635 N Lunar St Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	2082	$2,100	$1.01	3d	1	1.26mi
44216 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2604	$1,895	$0.73	45d	1	1.26mi
19676 N Locke Ct Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2466	$1,995	$0.81	45d	1	1.26mi
44290 W Neely Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,795	$1.12	0d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on marketlisting id $310,000 Pending
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $310,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   price $310,000 1077-char remark
7. 2026-03-17
   price $314,000 1077-char remark
8. 2026-03-01
   status Active 1077-char remark
9. 2026-03-01
   historical 1077-char remark
10. 2026-02-17
    price $315,000 1077-char remark
11. 2025-12-16
    price $319,000 1077-char remark
12. 2025-10-22
    listed $325,000 Active 1077-char remark
13. 2025-10-12
    historical
14. 2025-09-11
    price $349,400
15. 2025-08-22
    price $349,500
16. 2025-08-01
    price $349,600
17. 2025-07-17
    price $349,700
18. 2025-07-04
    price $349,800
19. 2025-06-20
    price $349,900
20. 2025-06-06
    price $355,900
21. 2025-05-20
    price $359,900
22. 2025-04-30
    listed $370,000 Active
23. 2019-12-05
    status Pending
24. 2019-12-05
    soldstatus $223,500 Closed
25. 2019-12-05
    soldstatus $223,500
26. 2019-12-04
    soldstatus $223,500 Closed
27. 2019-12-02
    status Pending
28. 2019-11-29
    soldstatus $223,500 Closed
29. 2019-10-26
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
30. 2019-10-08
    listed $219,900 Active
31. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus $204,500 Closed
32. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus $204,500
33. 2018-07-21
    status Pending
34. 2018-07-08
    status Active
35. 2018-06-11
    status Pending
36. 2018-05-22
    listed $198,000 Active
37. 2017-03-21
    soldstatus $171,990 Closed
38. 2017-03-21
    soldstatus $171,990
39. 2017-02-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
40. 2017-01-31
    price $174,859
41. 2017-01-27
    listed $174,860 Active
42. 2014-01-07
    historical
43. 2013-02-15
    status Pending
44. 2012-11-16
    listed $163,900 Active
45. 2012-08-24
    soldstatus $2,496,000
46. 2004-11-04
    soldstatus $19,721,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$2,441
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$9,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $314,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $349,400 ARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $349,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $349,600 ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $349,700 ARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $349,800 ARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $349,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $355,900 ARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $359,900 ARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $370,000 ARMLS
• 2019-12-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $223,500 Public Records
• 2019-12-05 Sold (MLS) $223,500 ARMLS
• 2019-12-04 Sold (MLS) $223,500 ARMLS
• 2019-12-02 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-11-29 Sold (MLS) $223,500 ARMLS
• 2019-10-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2019-10-08 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) $204,500 ARMLS
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $204,500 Public Records
• 2018-07-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-07-08 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-06-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-05-22 Listed $198,000 ARMLS
• 2017-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $171,990 Public Records
• 2017-03-21 Sold (MLS) $171,990 ARMLS
• 2017-02-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-01-31 Price Changed $174,859 ARMLS
• 2017-01-27 Listed $174,860 ARMLS
• 2014-01-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-02-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-11-16 Listed $163,900 ARMLS
• 2012-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $2,496,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $19,721,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,441 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.