21 Christopher Rd · Waverly, NY 14825

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this completely updated home in Chemung County. From the roof to the floors, everything has been meticulously brought back to life. This home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large eat-in kitchen with all new appliances and a living room with a cozy gas fire place. Step out to the back deck and enjoy the large open yard. Home also has a detached 2 car garage with 200amp hookup, perfect for a small workshop or charging station for an electric car. Come see all this home has to offer before its gone!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($350/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Waverly Central School District (town): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #480 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $128,054 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $86,186
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $252,273
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14825

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,267/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2023-09-01
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-14
   historical
3. 2021-11-02
   soldstatus $152,500 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Welcome to this completely updated home in Chemung County. From the roof to the floors, everything has been meticulously brought back to life. This home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large eat-in kitchen with all new appliances and a living room with a cozy gas fire place. Step out to the back deck and enjoy the large open yard. Home also has a detached 2 car garage with 200amp hookup, perfect for a small workshop or charging station for an electric car. Come see all this home has to offer before its gone!

4. 2021-09-09
   historical
5. 2021-07-28
   historical
6. 2021-06-03
   listed $154,900 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Welcome to this completely updated home in Chemung County. From the roof to the floors, everything has been meticulously brought back to life. This home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large eat-in kitchen with all new appliances and a living room with a cozy gas fire place. Step out to the back deck and enjoy the large open yard. Home also has a detached 2 car garage with 200amp hookup, perfect for a small workshop or charging station for an electric car. Come see all this home has to offer before its gone!

7. 2021-06-02
   listed $154,900
8. 2021-05-28
   listed $164,900
9. 2007-08-14
   soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$675/yr (+$56/mo · 53.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,267
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$556
• After-tax cash flow: $906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waverly Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630270
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,935
• Composite: 36.9/100
• National rank: #4544
• State rank: #480 of 590 in NY

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 746

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 14% Romanian 3% Italian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.65%
• Current HPI: 481.8402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+824.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-01 Pending — GBAOR
• 2023-08-14 Delisted — GBAOR
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $152,500 UNYREIS
• 2021-09-09 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-07-28 Delisted — GBAOR
• 2021-06-03 Listed $154,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-06-02 Listed $154,900 GBAOR
• 2021-05-28 Listed $164,900 CNYIS
• 2007-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,267 · -55.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.