11339 Merwin Rd · Fillmore, NY 14735

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1890 5.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Dreaming of a peaceful homestead with room to roam, grow, and gather? This inviting 5-bedroom, 2-bath farmhouse on 5 beautifully maintained acres offers the best of country living—just 4 miles from town yet tucked away in a setting that feels worlds apart. Property Highlights: Spacious and welcoming farmhouse with 5 bedrooms and comfortable, light-filled living areas Country kitchen with large pantry and dining space perfect for family meals and entertaining Park-like backyard with mature shade trees and open lawn—ideal for bonfires, picnics, and outdoor gatherings Horse barn with stalls and tack space, plus a fenced pasture ready for your animals Thoughtfully pla

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Park-like backyard
• Panoramic views

Tags

• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• PARK-LIKE BACKYARD
• HORSE BARN
• FENCED PASTURE
• VEGETABLE AND FLOWER GARDENS
• PANORAMIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#868 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fillmore Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #359 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,622 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $27,733
• Equity at exit: $97,577

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $94,576
• Equity at exit: $171,873

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14735

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,493/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $125,622

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-21
   price $165,000
3. 2025-08-30
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2025-03-04
   soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,493
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fillmore Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611070
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,114
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2889
• State rank: #359 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fillmore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #868
• US rank: #16718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,609

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 5% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 289.3268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,493 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.