Hannah Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$159,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 813 sqft · SingleFamily · 695 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

We would love to welcome you to our Hannah/813H floor plan, located in the new William Trails community! This single-story house spans 813 square feet and features two bedrooms and two bathrooms. As you advance towards this lovely abode, you are welcomed by the front porch, equipped with overhead lights and providing a place to relax as you enjoy Mother Nature. The soft breeze and bright sunlight one can experience in this part of the house will calm and rejuvenate their mind and heart. Upon entering the home, you will find on one side of the entryway a secondary bedroom finished with soft carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a bright window facing the front of the house. On the other side of the entryway lies a linen closet and a secondary bathroom. The bathroom is complete with vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. At the end of the entryway is the family room and kitchen. The open concept living and dining area of this house allows for optimal space for relaxing on leisurely weekends or hosting celebrations with family and friends. Natural light streams into the room, flooding the space with the rays of the Sun. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl flooring, a kitchen island, and a tall pantry with space for storage. Past the kitchen is the utility room and primary bedroom. The primary bedroom is finished with carpet flooring and a bright window facing the back of the property. The bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, complete with vinyl floors and a standing shower. T

Key facts

• Listed 695 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN ISLAND WITH PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $159,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $159,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($66/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 695 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,215 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 695 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,490
• List price: $159,990
• Delta: 0.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11922 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	0mo	$154,990	$191	99
11947 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	2mo	$158,990	$196	98
11939 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	2mo	$154,990	$191	98
11930 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	2mo	$159,990	$197	98
11907 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	2mo	$153,990	$189	98
14546 William Trails Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	1mo	$144,990	$178	96
11911 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	816 (+0%)	2mo	$149,990	$184	93
11931 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	816 (+0%)	4mo	$139,890	$171	92
11955 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	816 (+0%)	4mo	$149,990	$184	92
14538 William Trails Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	816 (+0%)	6mo	$144,990	$178	88
14594 William Trails Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	7mo	$156,990	$193	88
12046 William Trails Circle Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	813 (0%)	9mo	$163,990	$202	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-28,267
• Equity at exit: $23,780

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-35,085
• Equity at exit: $13,790

Cash invested: $44,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,392/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $159,490

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $61	+0% $5	+5% $-50	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-50	+0% $5	+5% $61	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $46	base $5	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,872
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,990 Active 695 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,990 Active 694 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,990 Active 693 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,990 Active 692 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,990 Active 690 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,990 Active 686 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,990 Active 685 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,990 Active 684 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,990 Active 681 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,990 Active 680 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,990 Active 679 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,990 Active 678 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,990 Active 677 DOM
14. 2024-07-23
    listed $159,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    We would love to welcome you to our Hannah/813H floor plan, located in the new William Trails community! This single-story house spans 813 square feet and features two bedrooms and two bathrooms. As you advance towards this lovely abode, you are welcomed by the front porch, equipped with overhead lights and providing a place to relax as you enjoy Mother Nature. The soft breeze and bright sunlight one can experience in this part of the house will calm and rejuvenate their mind and heart. Upon entering the home, you will find on one side of the entryway a secondary bedroom finished with soft carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a bright window facing the front of the house. On the other side of the entryway lies a linen closet and a secondary bathroom. The bathroom is complete with vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. At the end of the entryway is the family room and kitchen. The open concept living and dining area of this house allows for optimal space for relaxing on leisurely weekends or hosting celebrations with family and friends. Natural light streams into the room, flooding the space with the rays of the Sun. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl flooring, a kitchen island, and a tall pantry with space for storage. Past the kitchen is the utility room and primary bedroom. The primary bedroom is finished with carpet flooring and a bright window facing the back of the property. The bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, complete with vinyl floors and a standing shower. T

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$2,392
• − Insurance: −$797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable loss: −$2,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior and landscaping to become move-in ready. Significant value can be added through landscaping, exterior painting, and window repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and trees obscure the property
• Major exterior paint — No visible paint condition
• Major exterior siding — No visible siding condition
• Major exterior fencing — No visible fencing
• Major exterior windows — No visible window condition
• Major exterior roof — No visible roof condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would enhance both resale and rental value
• Both exterior painting and siding — Painting and repairing the exterior would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both fencing — Installing a fence would improve the property's security and increase its value
• Both windows — Replacing or repairing windows would improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and trees obscure the property	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · No visible paint condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No visible siding condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior fencing · No visible fencing	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior windows · No visible window condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior roof · No visible roof condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would enhance both resale and rental value ↑
• Both exterior painting and siding — Painting and repairing the exterior would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both fencing — Installing a fence would improve the property's security and increase its value ↑
• Both windows — Replacing or repairing windows would improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-07-23 Listed $159,990 Zillow