Xxxx Six Shooter Trl · Kaibab Estates West, AZ 86337

$82,000

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 512 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2012 47 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice and flat property with views of Mt Floyd and Round Mtn. Great for livestock or horses. Abuts up to State Land on the east side. Madman Mtn Rd splits lot diagonally equally with each parcel at approximately 23.65 acres making it an easy split to sell. West side of property is used for a 1,650 foot private airplane runway. East side contains a 16x32ft cabin and fence in. Solar panels, water holding tanks, and stock trailer included. Located in hunting zone 10 of the Westwood Ranch. Hunt Elk, Mule Deer, and Antelope. All on maintained roads, with no HOA's. NOTE: 2 additional sheds available for extra cost.

Key facts

• Views of round mtn
• Views of mt floyd
• Water holding tanks

Tags

• VIEWS OF MT FLOYD
• VIEWS OF ROUND MTN
• ABUTS UP TO STATE LAND
• PRIVATE AIRPLANE RUNWAY
• 16X32FT CABIN
• WATER HOLDING TANKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Williams Unified District (4193) (town): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #163 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.30%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $21,040
• Equity at exit: $15,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $61,203
• Equity at exit: $13,605

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86337

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $717

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $541	-5% $512	+0% $484	+5% $456	+10% $427
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $432	+0% $484	+5% $537	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $505	base $484	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $82,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $4,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $4,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williams Unified District (4193)
• NCES district ID: 0409310
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,336
• Composite: 20.59/100
• National rank: #8553
• State rank: #163 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Kaibab Estates West

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,827

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Current HPI: 196.1506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $82,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid