902 10th St SW · Alabaster, AL 35007

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1996 0.35 ac lot $116/sqft · 25% below area Est $294k · 25% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Single Family Home located in Alabaster. Offering a three bed and three Bath two story home 1,885 Sq Ft and As-Is. Needs new HVAC unit.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in Alabaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AL, #3,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alabaster City (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #17 of 129 in AL (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,354 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,779
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -25.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Oakbrooke Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-13%)	1mo	$309,900	$189	72
921 10th St SW	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (-3%)	8mo	$280,000	$153	71
100 Bluegrass Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,985 (+5%)	0mo	$295,000	$149	70
1230 SW 8th Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-11%)	7mo	$294,900	$176	61
1307 3rd Ave SW	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,862 (-1%)	3mo	$235,000	$126	60
902 6th Ave SW	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,628 (-14%)	4mo	$375,000	$230	57
112 Summer Hill Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,060 (+9%)	7mo	$150,000	$73	56
204 Shalimar Cir	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,754 (-7%)	8mo	$299,900	$171	54
113 Summer Hill Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,133 (+13%)	0mo	$316,000	$148	51
235 Summer Hill Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,133 (+13%)	1mo	$310,000	$145	51
167 Pebble Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,166 (+15%)	1mo	$279,900	$129	49
121 Pebble Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,628 (-14%)	0mo	$315,000	$193	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,029
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,471
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35007

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,359/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $189	+0% $127	+5% $65	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $53	+0% $127	+5% $201	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $183	base $127	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Summer Hill Dr Alabaster, AL	3.0	2.0	1950	$1,686	$0.86	15d	1	0.41mi
203 Winterhaven Dr Alabaster, AL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,550	$1.08	4d	1	0.60mi
1090 Thompson Rd Alabaster, AL	3.0	2.5	1615	$1,600	$0.99	44d	1	0.75mi
955 3rd Ave NW Alabaster, AL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,875	$1.38	4d	1	0.82mi
910 Falling Star Ln Alabaster, AL	3.0	2.5	2010	$1,800	$0.90	20d	1	1.27mi
213 Queens Gate Maylene, AL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,846	$1.27	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-04-22
   price $229,900 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Beautiful Single Family Home located in Alabaster. Offering a three bed and three Bath two story home 1,885 Sq Ft and As-Is. Needs new HVAC unit.

9. 2026-04-14
   listed $239,900 Active 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Beautiful Single Family Home located in Alabaster. Offering a three bed and three Bath two story home 1,885 Sq Ft and As-Is. Needs new HVAC unit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,359 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,359 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,359
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$530
• After-tax cash flow: $2,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alabaster City
• NCES district ID: 0100190
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $68,690
• Composite: 39.07/100
• National rank: #4052
• State rank: #17 of 129 in AL

Livability — Alabaster

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3512

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alabaster, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 28,586
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 28,586
• Household income: $88,505
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 325.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.63%
• Current HPI: 211.0691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $229,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $239,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,359 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.