404 406 Coal St · Shenandoah, PA 17976

$199,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,536 sqft · MultiFamily · 216 Days on market

Fair condition $79/sqft · 33% above area Est $150k · 33% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

Key facts

• Listed 216 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#720 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, commute F, employment F.
• Shenandoah Valley SD (town): math 20% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #454 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 169 units permitted in Schuylkill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Schuylkill County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.81%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,402
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 32.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Coal St	0.12mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,706 (+7%)	7mo	$135,000	$50	73
205-207 E Lloyd St	0.42mi	7/2.0 (+1)	2,412 (-5%)	13mo	$87,000	$36	52
14-16 Theresa St	0.65mi	6/—	2,352 (-7%)	8mo	$215,000	$91	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $77,185
• Equity at exit: $99,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $202,380
• Equity at exit: $161,368

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17976

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 69%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,622
Total (2 units)			$2,623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $199,900 Pending 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-05-04
    status Active 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

11. 2026-05-04
    price $199,900 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

12. 2026-05-01
    historical 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

13. 2025-11-26
    price $209,900 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

14. 2025-11-08
    status Active 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

15. 2025-11-06
    status Pending 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

16. 2025-11-01
    listed $214,900 Active 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Taxes and Measurements are estimated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,303
• After-tax cash flow: $6,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and value, focusing on kitchen and bathroom updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and possibly leaking
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal
• Both Refinish or replace kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and possibly leaking	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$21,000–80,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Refinish or replace kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4221490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $31,968
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7851
• State rank: #454 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #7134

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, PA
• City population: 5,988
• Population (ZIP): 5,988

Population outlook (Schuylkill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 137,447 people
• By 2030: 133,121 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 124,172 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 115,611 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 100,796 · -26.7%
• By 2100: 86,667 · -36.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schuylkill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+39.9 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 308.8036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — LCAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,900 LCAR
• 2026-05-01 Delisted — LCAR
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $209,900 LCAR
• 2025-11-08 Relisted — LCAR
• 2025-11-06 Pending — LCAR
• 2025-11-01 Listed $214,900 LCAR