237 SE Forest Ter · Lake City, FL 32025

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2006 0.34 ac lot Est $265k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath situated on a spacious . 34-acre lot! Offering the perfect blend of comfort and functionality, this home features a desirable split floor plan and a 2-car garage for added convenience. Step outside to enjoy a fully privacy-fenced backyard—ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Raised garden beds for the gardening enthusiast and a covered patio with a sunshade, perfect for enjoying Florida evenings year-round. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, and within close proximity to Alligator Park. This home offers both tranquility and accessibility. Don’t miss your o

Key facts

• Raised garden beds
• Covered patio
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.34 acre

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-story residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot zoned RSF-2
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Insulated windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Melrose Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 398 students, 84% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $270k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,796 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,278
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 SE Forest Ter	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+2%)	7mo	$270,000	$179	89
264 SE Forest Ter	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+4%)	3mo	$155,000	$101	89
257 SE Forest Ter	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+2%)	11mo	$273,000	$181	87
190 SE Cherokee Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-4%)	18mo	$300,000	$211	70
175 SE Mimosa Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	3mo	$294,000	$184	67
145 SE Mohawk Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-2%)	19mo	$220,000	$151	61
242 SE Jonathan Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-4%)	22mo	$235,000	$166	60
431 SE Anastasia St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+7%)	11mo	$275,000	$173	57
472 SE Hubble St	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,627 (+10%)	13mo	$300,000	$184	56
354 SE Forest Ter	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,675 (+13%)	22mo	$205,000	$122	46
308 SE Gregory Gln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,262 (-15%)	16mo	$270,000	$214	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $128,859
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $393,532
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,114/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $219,799

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-207	+0% $-284	+5% $-360	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-355	+0% $-284	+5% $-213	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-215	base $-284	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   price $269,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $274,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $274,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $274,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $279,900 Active
20. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus $168,429
21. 2006-09-20
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,240 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,114
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$8,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $279,900 NFMLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $168,429 Public Records
• 2006-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,114 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.