6915 Cape Forward Dr · Houston, TX 77083

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1983 5,000 sqft lot $107/sqft · 34% below area Est $251k · 34% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential at 6915 Cape Forward, a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering a rare opportunity to create something truly your own. With solid bones and a flexible layout, this property is a blank canvas waiting for the right vision. The classic floor plan provides a strong foundation, with a comfortable living area, kitchen, and dining space ready to be reimagined. Whether you're dreaming of an open-concept transformation or restoring the home to its full charm, the possibilities are wide open. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or creative spaces. Step outside to a yard ready to be shaped into you

Key facts

• Near dining
• Near shopping
• Classic floor plan

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• CLASSIC FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• IDEAL OUTDOOR RETREAT
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Villages of Pheasant Run; Annual association fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($279/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Killough Middle (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 816 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $165k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,029
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -34.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7227 Cabrina Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+3%)	1mo	$259,900	$164	73
6702 Metro Blvd #8	0.40mi	3/3.5	1,604 (+4%)	1mo	$314,780	$196	68
13522 Carruth Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+9%)	7mo	$319,000	$190	68
6934 Caddo Lake Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-10%)	7mo	$230,000	$166	66
13914 Magnolia Lake Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+4%)	6mo	$299,000	$186	64
7119 Biton Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-7%)	7mo	$249,000	$173	62
6823 Wellwood Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-10%)	7mo	$199,950	$143	61
13534 Clarewood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+13%)	4mo	$239,000	$137	61
13207 Robinglen Dr	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,466 (-5%)	5mo	$229,000	$156	61
13834 Magnolia Lake Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (+7%)	2mo	$296,500	$180	59
6702 Metro Blvd #4	0.39mi	3/3.5	1,744 (+13%)	1mo	$314,780	$180	54
13234 Carvel Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+12%)	3mo	$220,000	$128	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,948
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-28,411
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77083

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,732/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $70	+0% $23	+5% $-23	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-42	+0% $23	+5% $88	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $65	base $23	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7207 Crescent Mills Dr Unit 1531961P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1743	$5,934	$3.40	0d	1	0.68mi
7207 Crescent Mills Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$8,850	$5.06	44d	1	0.68mi
7211 Crescent Mills Dr Unit 1521536P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$6,487	$3.47	44d	1	0.68mi
7211 Crescent Mills Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1878	$8,850	$4.71	44d	1	0.68mi
13034 Leader St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,400	$1.13	25d	1	0.72mi
13004 Greenway Chase Ct Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,500	$1.13	44d	1	0.80mi
13009 Greenway Chase Ct Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1422	$1,350	$0.95	44d	1	0.80mi
13009 Greenway Chase Ct #3009 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1422	$1,350	$0.95	44d	1	0.80mi
6843 Greenway Chase St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1422	$2,200	$1.55	44d	1	0.83mi
11-18 Rio Bonito Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,316	$1.25	23d	1	0.88mi
11-18 Rio Bonito Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1238	$1,445	$1.17	12d	1	0.88mi
11-18 Rio Bonito Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1238	$1,445	$1.17	20d	1	0.88mi
11-18 Rio Bonito Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,316	$1.25	44d	1	0.88mi
7119 Brendam Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1231	$1,400	$1.14	5d	1	0.88mi
7119 Brendam Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1231	$1,400	$1.14	0d	1	0.88mi
14100 Rio Bonito Rd Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1084	$1,492	$1.38	0d	10	0.94mi
4040 Synott Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,677	$1.64	0d	54	0.95mi
6975 Westbranch Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,425	$1.11	44d	1	0.96mi
14405 Rio Bonito Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,402	$1.70	0d	14	0.96mi
4046 Synott Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,109	$1.04	25d	1	0.98mi
3945 Synott Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,185	$1.11	44d	1	1.01mi
12710 Leader St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,200	$1.08	44d	1	1.05mi
6700 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1035	$1,730	$1.67	23d	19	1.07mi
3710 Kingston Vale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	1.09mi
14501 Empanada Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,549	$1.64	0d	68	1.13mi
14425 Alief Clodine Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,293	$1.44	0d	8	1.16mi
14507 Empanada Dr Unit 2206 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,235	$0.95	44d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $164,900 Active 909-char remark
16. 2002-06-07
    soldstatus
17. 1988-02-26
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,732 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,732 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,732
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$574
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 73,230
• Household income: $64,418
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2410.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 30% Asian 23% Two or more races 14% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 11% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 271.2157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+153.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2002-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,732 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.