4509 Adelaide Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$70,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,426 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1911 4,290 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to add to your investment portfolio. Both units occupied with leases through May 2027. Get the benefit of adjoining lot included with this property. There are updates to the HVAC and water heater and plumbing. Located near public transportation and nearby park. Don't let the "as is" alarm you. Property has been recently inspected by city

Key facts

• Updates to hvac
• Updates to plumbing
• Nearby park

Tags

• UPDATES TO HVAC
• UPDATES TO WATER HEATER
• UPDATES TO PLUMBING
• NEAR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• NEARBY PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner is responsible for exterior maintenance, HVAC maintenance, roof, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential income property; 2–4 unit property (two units)
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.0985-acre lot; Neighborhood: O'Fallon

Interior

• Bedrooms: Each unit includes 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Each unit includes 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Two 2-bedroom units (one 2-bed unit and another 2-bed unit); Each unit has 1 bathroom; Forced air heating; Ceiling fans; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 38.6% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickey Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 273 students, 99% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,921/mo this rent would consume 114% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $70k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.29%
• DSCR: 6.13
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,094
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4210 Holly Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,528 (+4%)	1mo	$37,000	$15	74
4237 Holly Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,332 (-4%)	7mo	$156,900	$67	69
4511 Red Bud Ave	0.20mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,388 (-2%)	12mo	$220,000	$92	69
4582 Clarence Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,752 (+13%)	4mo	$50,000	$18	55
2138 E Fair Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,706 (+12%)	20mo	$44,800	$17	55
4418 Athlone Ave	0.27mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,686 (+11%)	16mo	$52,000	$19	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $108,597
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.71×
• Total profit: $249,028
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $339/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $1,883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $537

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,923	-5% $1,903	+0% $1,883	+5% $1,863	+10% $1,843
Rent	-10% $1,652	-5% $1,768	+0% $1,883	+5% $1,998	+10% $2,114
Rate	-1.0pp $1,918	-0.5pp $1,901	base $1,883	+0.5pp $1,865	+1.0pp $1,846

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2.0	2	$2,920
Total (4 units)			$2,921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	25d	1	0.58mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	6d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 358-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $70,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $339 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$340/yr (+$28/mo · 100.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$339
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,804
• − Management: −$2,804
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $22,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,471
• After-tax cash flow: $17,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+76.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $22,900 Public Records
• 2001-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $39,750 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $339 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.