2523 Fleming Way · Fairgarden, TN 37876

$350,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2000 0.30 ac lot $347/sqft · 23% below area Est $455k · 23% under $167/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 bedroom 2 bath cabin, in Douglas Lake Resort. This cabin can be used as a overnight rental, vacation home or a permanent residence. Cabin offer one level living with large living room and a wood burning fireplace. Cabin comes furnished. Douglas Lake Resort has a boat dock, boat ramp, community pool, and a club house.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Spacious deck
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; 1,008 building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Log construction
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Lot approximately 0.3 acres (128.32 x 100 irregular)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan with 4 total rooms; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-825 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (48.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (48.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.9% in Fairgarden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#381 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,842 (48.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.10%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,418
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -23.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2607 Windfall Estates Dr	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-1%)	1mo	$150,000	$150	81
1006 Gordon Way	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	5mo	$367,500	$365	78
933 Buck Way	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	14mo	$399,900	$397	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $132,744
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $422,682
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1142
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,833

Max offer price $204,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-627	-5% $-726	+0% $-825	+5% $-924	+10% $-1,023
Rent	-10% $-966	-5% $-896	+0% $-825	+5% $-754	+10% $-684
Rate	-1.0pp $-649	-0.5pp $-736	base $-825	+0.5pp $-916	+1.0pp $-1,008

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1150 Sanctuary Shores Way Sevierville, TN	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	45d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $350,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $350,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $350,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $375,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $375,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $375,000 Active 183-char remark
18. 2026-02-17
    soldstatus $424,453
19. 2018-12-18
    soldstatus $164,000
20. 2018-12-07
    soldstatus $164,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom 2 bath cabin, in Douglas Lake Resort. This cabin can be used as a overnight rental, vacation home or a permanent residence. Cabin offer one level living with large living room and a wood burning fireplace. Cabin comes furnished. Douglas Lake Resort has a boat dock, boat ramp, community pool, and a club house.

21. 2012-02-02
    soldstatus $70,000

    Show marketing remark (756 chars)

    Bank Owned True Log Cabin on Douglas Lake in Douglas Lake Resort. Close to Sevierville, Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg. Resort amenities offered include Boat Ramp, Boat Dock, Swimming Pool, Walking Trails, Clubhouse, Picnic Areas, Spectacular Views of Lake and Mountains. Kick back on the partially wrapped deck or take a relaxing hot tub. This truly is a bargain, these cabins won't last long. Buy a now and be ready for Spring. Cabins being sold As Is Where Is with no warranties expressed or implied. Photos are of similar cabin and may not be actual cabin. Some cabins are unfurnished, some are partially furnished and some are fully furnished(including appliances and hot tubs). All Information deemed reliable but it is buyer's responsibility to verify.

22. 2001-09-21
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,409/yr (+$117/mo · 130.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$16,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,982
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fairgarden

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #24205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+483.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $350,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $375,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $424,453 Public Records
• 2018-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-07 Sold (MLS) $164,000 GSMAR
• 2012-02-02 Sold (MLS) $70,000 GSMAR
• 2001-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,076 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.