BLANCO Plan · Aledo, TX 76008

$382,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily · 700 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Blanco is a spacious single-story floorplan offering approximately 2,035 sq. ft. of living space across 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The open-concept design features a generous family room that flows into the dining area and modern kitchen, creating a bright and inviting central living space, with windows looking into the backyard. The kitchen includes a functional layout with ample storage, a large island, walk-in pantry, and convenient access to the dining area and covered patio for indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home and features a well-appointed bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom are thoughtfully positioned in their own wing, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room, mud room with built-in storage, computer desk niche, and a 2-car garage, making the Blanco a versatile and comfortable home designed for everyday living. Front elevations offer bay window, porch arch, and stone detail options. Additional features include: Tankless Gas Water Heater; Revwood flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Living Room, Utility, and Bathrooms; full yard sod, landscaping, and irrigation. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package with an industry-leading suite of smart home products.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 699 days

🏗️ New construction. The $382,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $383k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Aledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#328 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 700 days — a 12% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,365 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 700 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,400
• List price: $382,990
• Delta: -12.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14944 Chipwood Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,006 (-1%)	1mo	$385,000	$192	83
14825 Brettridge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,085 (+2%)	1mo	$389,999	$187	74
15060 Ted Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-2%)	1mo	$399,990	$200	70
144 Crimson Sky Ct	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,241 (+10%)	2mo	$380,000	$170	66
736 Soaring Hawk Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,035 (0%)	0mo	$386,625	$190	66
15128 Green Bluff Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,939 (-5%)	2mo	$463,990	$239	62
15117 Green Bluff Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-2%)	0mo	$399,900	$200	61
15124 Green Bluff Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-2%)	2mo	$425,000	$213	60
15129 Ram Rock Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,140 (+5%)	2mo	$384,980	$180	59
15025 Ram Rock Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,120 (+4%)	0mo	$384,990	$182	55
14925 Belclaire Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,317 (+14%)	0mo	$434,900	$188	55
15064 Green Bluff Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (-9%)	2mo	$434,900	$234	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-101,119
• Equity at exit: $65,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-119,012
• Equity at exit: $37,905

Cash invested: $122,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 54 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,900 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 1149
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,576/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,835

Max offer price $363,937

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-363	+0% $-515	+5% $-666	+10% $-818
Rent	-10% $-766	-5% $-640	+0% $-515	+5% $-389	+10% $-263
Rate	-1.0pp $-294	-0.5pp $-403	base $-515	+0.5pp $-628	+1.0pp $-744

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,600
• Closing costs: $13,152
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15049 Chipwood Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	3.0	2337	$3,500	$1.50	139d	1	0.05mi
105 Crimson Sky Ct Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2204	$3,200	$1.45	51d	1	0.11mi
616 Ardath Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,850	$1.39	90d	1	0.20mi
616 Ardath Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,850	$1.39	108d	1	0.20mi
15229 Holly Bay Ct Aledo, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,801	$1.36	68d	1	0.20mi
14953 Gentry Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2866	$3,300	$1.15	139d	1	0.25mi
228 Open Sky Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2555	$3,395	$1.33	41d	1	0.26mi
701 Brody Trl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2639	$3,236	$1.23	4d	1	0.28mi
14824 Brettridge Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2782	$3,321	$1.19	139d	1	0.35mi
14848 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2121	$2,995	$1.41	74d	1	0.37mi
253 Gill Point Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2858	$3,650	$1.28	101d	1	0.37mi
15013 Gladstone Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2820	$3,046	$1.08	12d	1	0.40mi
144 Peace Pl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2780	$3,395	$1.22	6d	1	0.43mi
816 Hollett Ct Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$3,071	$1.32	4d	1	0.45mi
216 Missler Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2209	$3,000	$1.36	19d	1	0.48mi
15129 Ram Rock Dr Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$3,500	$1.64	48d	1	0.70mi
2013 Tolleson Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2687	$3,495	$1.30	18d	1	1.18mi
2165 Sandlin Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2679	$3,825	$1.43	139d	1	1.24mi
14341 Overlook Park Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2749	$4,750	$1.73	57d	1	1.26mi
14437 Greymoore Cir Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$3,600	$1.99	70d	1	1.29mi
2240 Laurel Ridge Rd Aledo, TX	3.0	3.5	2758	$4,500	$1.63	30d	1	1.32mi
14428 Balmoral Pl Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2366	$3,600	$1.52	69d	1	1.35mi
14409 Balmoral Pl Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	2334	$3,495	$1.50	4d	1	1.40mi
14228 Walsh Ave Aledo, TX	3.0	2.5	1766	$3,500	$1.98	73d	1	1.42mi
5957 Stacy Ln Weatherford, TX	3.0	2.0	2382	$2,795	$1.17	61d	1	1.43mi
5957 Stacy Ln Weatherford, TX	3.0	2.0	2382	$2,795	$1.17	63d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $382,990 Active 700 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $382,990 Active 699 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $382,990 Active 698 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $382,990 Active 697 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $382,990 Active 696 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $382,990 Active 695 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $382,990 Active 694 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $382,990 Active 693 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $382,990 Active 692 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $382,990 Active 691 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $382,990 Active 690 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $382,990 Active 689 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $382,990 Active 688 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $382,990 Active 687 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $377,990 Active 681 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $377,990 Active 680 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $377,990 Active 678 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $377,990 Active 676 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $377,990 Active 674 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $377,990 Active 673 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $377,990 Active 672 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $377,990 Active 671 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $377,990 Active 670 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $377,990 Active 669 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $377,990 Active 668 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $377,990 Active 667 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $377,990 Active 666 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $377,990 Active 665 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $377,990 Active 664 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $377,990 Active 663 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $377,990 Active 662 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $377,990 Active 661 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $377,990 Active 660 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $377,990 Active 659 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $377,990 Active 658 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $377,990 Active 657 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $377,990 Active 656 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $377,990 Active 655 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $377,990 Active 654 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $377,990 Active 653 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $377,990 Active 651 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $377,990 Active 650 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $377,990 Active 649 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $377,990 Active 648 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $377,990 Active 645 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $377,990 Active 644 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $377,990 Active 643 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $377,990 Active 642 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $377,990 Active 640 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $377,990 Active 638 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,557
• − Property taxes: −$6,576
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,056
• − Management: −$3,056
• − Depreciation: −$12,753
• Taxable loss: −$13,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a spacious floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and attract more buyers ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mccall El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Mcanally Int High Aledo H S B TX #147/1,632 Nat'l #2,426/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aledo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #7200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 147,426 people
• City population: 25,165
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $374,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $371,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $366,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $405,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $402,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $405,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $402,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Listed $388,990 Zillow