10817 Grayson St · Jacksonville, FL 32220

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2019 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment home on over a quarter acre. 3/1 on a beautiful treed corner lot. Home needs a complete rehab. Priced to sell. Please view the home prior to making an offer. Cash only. Seller will only accept offers with limited inspection periods, 30 days or less closing time.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Spacious back porch
• Covered carport

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• VERSATILE LIVING AREA
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.38 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Covered parking; Detached carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Paved road access
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Residential single-family use
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch areas; Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub and separate shower; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-573/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $255k implies a 750% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,896 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,482
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,132
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32220

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $246,560

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $24	+0% $-48	+5% $-120	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-122	+0% $-48	+5% $26	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $17	base $-48	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Chaffee Rd S Unit 191 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,759	$1.05	24d	1	0.97mi
500 Chaffee Rd S Unit 194 Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,549	$0.92	24d	1	0.97mi
500 Chaffee Rd S #127 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	24d	1	0.97mi
9611 Watershed Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,981	$1.08	8d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $255,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,147/yr (+$96/mo · 118.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,298
• Household income: $81,792
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 177.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.90%
• Current HPI: 293.7943
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+508.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $255,000 realMLS
• 2018-10-04 Sold (MLS) $30,000 realMLS
• 2018-09-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-09-15 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-08-30 Listed $34,900 realMLS
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) $28,000 realMLS
• 2018-03-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-03-16 Price Changed $36,900 realMLS
• 2018-02-21 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-02-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-02-14 Listed $41,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · +26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.