35394 Belle Haven Rd · Belle Haven, VA 23306

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1925 1.16 ac lot Est $121k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a fixer upper - this is it! Great bones and hardwood floors located on just over one acre. Centrally located to Riverside Shore Memorial Hospital, Onancock, and Cape Charles. Don't miss this opportunity for your next project to be on the ESVA!

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Over one acre
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OVER ONE ACRE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.7% in Belle Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#89 in VA, #2,931 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pungoteague Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 451 students, 103% FRL); Nandua Middle (math 47% / reading 67%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 474 students, 101% FRL); Nandua High (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 636 students, 119% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.80%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15222 King St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,144 (+12%)	10mo	$135,000	$63	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $71,974
• Equity at exit: $82,762

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $188,295
• Equity at exit: $163,518

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23306

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $305/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $820

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $462	+0% $431	+5% $400	+10% $369
Rent	-10% $323	-5% $377	+0% $431	+5% $485	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $459	base $431	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $305 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$597/yr (+$50/mo · 195.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$305
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$853
• After-tax cash flow: $4,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Belle Haven

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2931

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belle Haven, VA
• City population: 10,205
• Population (ZIP): 1,122

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 13% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.89%
• Current HPI: 165.2007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — ESAR
• 2026-02-16 Listed $110,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $305 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.