19543 Elmtree Estates Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1983 7,000 sqft lot Est $230k · 24% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open and Great floorplan on a corner lot! Tile throughout main living areas. Lots of natural light! This home won't last long!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Highland Creek HOA with an annual fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1983; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; One fireplace; Washer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($594/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 43% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $175k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19427 Elmtree Estates Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$166	88
6734 Prairie Village Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-2%)	0mo	$225,000	$170	88
19407 Glenway Falls Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-2%)	2mo	$229,900	$173	86
6727 Cypress Glades Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-7%)	4mo	$225,000	$179	72
19927 Mountain Dale Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-5%)	1mo	$199,000	$155	72
19956 Sutton Falls Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-2%)	3mo	$199,900	$151	70
7114 Pheasant Grove Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-9%)	3mo	$227,000	$185	64
19538 Buckland Park Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-10%)	2mo	$228,000	$187	62
7343 Village Lake Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,350 (0%)	4mo	$212,900	$158	61
7351 Village Lake Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,364 (+1%)	4mo	$229,000	$168	59
19326 River Bottom Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	5mo	$225,000	$188	54
6635 Rusty Ridge Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-11%)	2mo	$205,000	$170	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,492
• Equity at exit: $39,979

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,696
• Equity at exit: $40,082

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,838/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	12d	1	0.12mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	43d	1	0.12mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	2d	1	0.49mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	43d	1	0.60mi
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	43d	1	0.60mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$2,036	$1.18	4d	1	0.68mi
19638 Billineys Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,750	$1.00	19d	1	0.72mi
6502 Wellington Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	12d	1	0.74mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	1d	56	0.75mi
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	3d	1	0.76mi
19299 W Little York Rd Unit ACS2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,984	$1.78	43d	1	0.80mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	43d	1	0.82mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SWFS2 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	2d	1	0.82mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	43d	1	0.86mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.86mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	43d	1	0.91mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	7d	1	0.95mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	11d	1	0.95mi
7323 Livery Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,780	$1.17	22d	1	0.95mi
19943 Crested Hill Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,621	$1.35	7d	1	0.96mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	4d	1	1.00mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	43d	1	1.04mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	22d	1	1.05mi
18531 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,799	$1.06	22d	1	1.11mi
6331 Scotchwood Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$1,681	$1.04	5d	1	1.14mi
5906 Grand Colony Dr Katy, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,720	$1.50	3d	9	1.22mi
19802 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,745	$1.09	43d	1	1.23mi
19735 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,719	$1.22	2d	1	1.25mi
19730 Cozy Cabbin Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,800	$1.17	22d	1	1.27mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	24d	1	1.27mi
20967 Young Meadows Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,795	$1.43	7d	1	1.28mi
18319 Autumn Trails Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1580	$1,845	$1.17	22d	1	1.28mi
19203 Canaras Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	17d	1	1.28mi
6210 Scotchwood Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,696	$1.01	22d	1	1.28mi
19218 Sandelford Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,000	$0.84	2d	1	1.30mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	43d	1	1.30mi
18311 Autumn Trails Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,779	$1.16	7d	1	1.31mi
19939 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,105	$2.26	1d	15	1.32mi
19235 Sandelford Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,000	$0.75	7d	1	1.33mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	22d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $175,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2019-11-06
    soldstatus
18. 2019-11-04
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2019-10-04
    status Pending
20. 2019-09-26
    price $150,000
21. 2019-09-12
    price $152,000
22. 2019-08-28
    price $154,000
23. 2019-08-27
    listed $293,000 Active
24. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus
25. 2014-05-12
    soldstatus Sold 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Open and Great floorplan on a corner lot! Tile throughout main living areas. Lots of natural light! This home won't last long!

26. 2014-05-08
    status Pending 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Open and Great floorplan on a corner lot! Tile throughout main living areas. Lots of natural light! This home won't last long!

27. 2014-05-05
    status Option Pending 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Open and Great floorplan on a corner lot! Tile throughout main living areas. Lots of natural light! This home won't last long!

28. 2014-04-29
    listed $99,900 Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Open and Great floorplan on a corner lot! Tile throughout main living areas. Lots of natural light! This home won't last long!

29. 2014-03-14
    historical
30. 2014-03-13
    status Active
31. 2014-03-12
    status Pending, Continue to Show
32. 2014-03-03
    status Option Pending
33. 2014-02-22
    price $99,900
34. 2014-02-01
    listed $112,000 Active
35. 2012-12-07
    soldstatus
36. 2012-11-19
    historical
37. 2012-11-08
    listed $90,000
38. 2000-05-03
    soldstatus
39. 2000-04-01
    soldstatus $67,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,838 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,838 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,838
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $1,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2019-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-10-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-26 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-12 Price Changed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-28 Price Changed $154,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-27 Listed $293,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-29 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2014-03-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-03-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-22 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2014-02-01 Listed $112,000 HARMLS
• 2012-12-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-11-08 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2000-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $67,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,838 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.