4860 Pony Express Trl #19 · Pollock Pines, CA 95709

$79,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brand new 2025 Clayton home located in the desirable Cedar Grove community in Camino, CA. This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a bright open concept layout with sleek modern finishes throughout. The kitchen and bathroom feature stylish black matte finishes, adding a clean, contemporary touch. Enjoy abundant natural light and an indoor laundry area with washer and dryer hookups. Designed for comfort and efficiency, this home is completely move-in ready. Situated in a peaceful community with affordable space rent of $695 per month, this is a great opportunity for low-maintenance living in the beautiful Apple Hill area.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Indoor laundry area
• Parking

Tags

• CEDAR GROVE COMMUNITY
• BRIGHT OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STYLISH BLACK MATTE FINISHES
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• MOVE-IN READY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Cedar Grove community at 4860 Pony Express Trl #19, Camino, CA 95709 (directions available)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property marked as not land leased)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Propane service; Individual electric meter; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park single wide; Made by Clayton (CMH Manufacturing West, Inc.); Built in 2025
• Construction: Wood skirting; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Wood skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Stone countertops in the kitchen; Kitchen and family/dining combo; Living room with other/unspecified feature; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside (in kitchen/inside area/inside room); Gas hookup for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• El Dorado Union High (suburban): math 44% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #89 of 517 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,551 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.56%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $35,260
• Equity at exit: $11,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $92,859
• Equity at exit: $6,913

Cash invested: $22,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95709

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,950

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,988
• Closing costs: $2,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $79,950 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,950 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,950 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,950 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,950 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,950 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,950 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,950 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,950 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,950 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,950 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,950 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,950 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,950 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$2,326
• Taxable income: $8,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,992
• After-tax cash flow: $7,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2025 Clayton manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a bright, open concept layout with modern finishes. The home is located in a peaceful community with affordable space rent, making it a great opportunity for low-maintenance living in the beautiful Apple Hill area.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and roof (if applicable) — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more renters and make the home more appealing.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and roof (if applicable) — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more renters and make the home more appealing. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado Union High
• NCES district ID: 0612070
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $78,936
• Composite: 50.84/100
• National rank: #1798
• State rank: #89 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,844

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.84%
• Current HPI: 267.8967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B