12501 Ulmerton Rd #33 · Largo, FL 33774

$189,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1978 3,772 sqft lot Est $180k · 6% over $260/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAND OWNED DUSK TO DAWN SECURITY, 2.5 MILES TO THE GULF 1/2 MILE TO GOLF COURSE, SHOPPING, MEDICAL, CHURCHES. 20 MINUTES TO ST. PETE / CLEARWATER AIRPORT 30 MINUTES TO TAMPA AIRPORT. LAWN FERTILIZED AND SPRAYED UNDER HOME FOR BUGS. ACTIVE COMMUNITY BUILDING. SHUFFLEBOARD AND HORSESHOES

Key facts

• New ceiling fans
• Newer appliances
• Updated subflooring

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• SCENIC LAKE
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED SUBFLOORING
• NEW CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact: Denise Swartz
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA $260; total annual fees $3,120; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $260 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, escrow reserves); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, maintenance; Buyer approval required; Deed-restricted community with street lights; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 20 lb)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Off-street parking; Golf cart parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Canal/lake irrigation source available; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Fire hydrant access
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces east; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal frame with metal and vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Front porch; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Exterior storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Dining/living room combo; Solid surface counters; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $190k implies a 232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,251 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,712
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12501 Ulmerton Rd #77	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	0mo	$185,000	$161	100
12501 Ulmerton Rd #241	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$170,000	$148	93
12501 Ulmerton Rd #206	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$165,000	$156	84
12501 Ulmerton Rd #122	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,035 (-10%)	0mo	$126,000	$122	83
12501 Ulmerton Rd #51	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$200,000	$160	79
12501 Ulmerton Rd #10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,086 (-6%)	14mo	$155,000	$143	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,876
• Equity at exit: $28,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,356
• Equity at exit: $16,423

Cash invested: $53,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33774

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,757

Max offer price $189,950

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $383	+0% $329	+5% $275	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $158	-5% $243	+0% $329	+5% $415	+10% $501
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $378	base $329	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,488
• Closing costs: $5,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12800 Vonn Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	810	$1,458	$1.80	3d	16	0.59mi
2503 Mary Sue St SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,211	$1.75	15d	1	0.61mi
13001 120th St Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,950	$1.87	8d	1	0.65mi
13125 Wilcox Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,830	$2.18	3d	8	0.66mi
13200 Wilcox Rd Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	932	$1,755	$1.88	4d	2	0.67mi
2316 Fulton Way Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,699	$2.23	5d	1	0.69mi
11980 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	17d	3	0.74mi
11980 133rd Ave Apt 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.74mi
11960 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$2,150	$2.30	8d	1	0.75mi
11960 133rd Ave Unit 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.75mi
11938 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	17d	1	0.76mi
11704 127th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,345	$1.79	5d	1	0.76mi
11938 133rd Ave Apt 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.76mi
1825 134th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$2,200	$2.19	25d	1	0.77mi
11666 126th Ter Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,183	$2.07	25d	1	0.78mi
13300 Walsingham Rd Largo, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,788	$1.69	25d	1	0.83mi
2200 Gladys St Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	677	$1,595	$2.35	25d	1	0.83mi
13584 Twig Ter Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$4,200	$3.29	5d	1	0.83mi
12497 136th Ln Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,950	$2.19	25d	1	0.87mi
3000 Karen Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$2,800	$3.15	25d	1	0.88mi
3000 Karen Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$2,450	$2.76	23d	1	0.88mi
1448 Oak St Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	5d	1	0.92mi
1884 Pine St Largo, FL	3.0	1.5	1012	$2,499	$2.47	23d	1	0.98mi
1741 Trotter Rd Unit A Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	25d	1	1.02mi
1830 30th Ln SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,725	$1.95	15d	1	1.03mi
13250 Ridge Rd Unit 3B1 Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,975	$1.61	19d	1	1.06mi
3054 Adrian Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1059	$3,500	$3.31	5d	1	1.07mi
1628 Pine St Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	25d	1	1.10mi
2272 16th Ave SW Unit C Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1031	$2,600	$2.52	25d	1	1.11mi
3115 Adrian Ave Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	5d	1	1.13mi
13333 Ridge Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	860	$1,765	$2.05	8d	1	1.15mi
11201 122nd Ave Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,300	$2.65	5d	2	1.16mi
1635 Gladys St Unit 2 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$1,900	$1.59	8d	1	1.16mi
1635 Gladys St Unit 2 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	17d	1	1.16mi
3223 Dryer Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.22mi
14130 Rosemary Ln Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	880	$1,725	$1.96	21d	2	1.26mi
9 Jeff Rd Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	964	$2,150	$2.23	5d	1	1.29mi
2317 13th Ave SW Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1189	$2,309	$1.94	17d	1	1.36mi
12100 Seminole Blvd Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	25d	1	1.39mi
14283 Sharon Dr Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,590	$1.97	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,950 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,950 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,950 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,950 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,950 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,950 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,950 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,950 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,950 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,950 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,950 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,950 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-04-24
    listed $189,950 Active
14. 2016-07-22
    soldstatus $57,250 Sold 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    LAND OWNED DUSK TO DAWN SECURITY, 2.5 MILES TO THE GULF 1/2 MILE TO GOLF COURSE, SHOPPING, MEDICAL, CHURCHES. 20 MINUTES TO ST. PETE / CLEARWATER AIRPORT 30 MINUTES TO TAMPA AIRPORT. LAWN FERTILIZED AND SPRAYED UNDER HOME FOR BUGS. ACTIVE COMMUNITY BUILDING. SHUFFLEBOARD AND HORSESHOES

15. 2016-07-20
    soldstatus $57,250
16. 2016-06-30
    status Pending 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    LAND OWNED DUSK TO DAWN SECURITY, 2.5 MILES TO THE GULF 1/2 MILE TO GOLF COURSE, SHOPPING, MEDICAL, CHURCHES. 20 MINUTES TO ST. PETE / CLEARWATER AIRPORT 30 MINUTES TO TAMPA AIRPORT. LAWN FERTILIZED AND SPRAYED UNDER HOME FOR BUGS. ACTIVE COMMUNITY BUILDING. SHUFFLEBOARD AND HORSESHOES

17. 2016-04-11
    listed $64,888 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    LAND OWNED DUSK TO DAWN SECURITY, 2.5 MILES TO THE GULF 1/2 MILE TO GOLF COURSE, SHOPPING, MEDICAL, CHURCHES. 20 MINUTES TO ST. PETE / CLEARWATER AIRPORT 30 MINUTES TO TAMPA AIRPORT. LAWN FERTILIZED AND SPRAYED UNDER HOME FOR BUGS. ACTIVE COMMUNITY BUILDING. SHUFFLEBOARD AND HORSESHOES

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$942/yr (+$79/mo · 148.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,640
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$5,526
• Taxable income: $1,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $3,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,799
• Household income: $79,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.61%
• Current HPI: 336.629
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+192.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $189,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-22 Sold (MLS) $57,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $57,250 Public Records
• 2016-06-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-11 Listed $64,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.