5812 Red Fox Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$143,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1979 0.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Souteast Winter Haven Location on 0.41 Acre parcel. You'll own the land, No Lot rent on this Move in Ready 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Home. Less than 5 miles to Legoland, Publix, Super Wall Mart, Shopping, Restaurants, and Eagle Ridge Mall. Just 33 miles to Disney!!! - Completely Renovated in 2022, New Central Heat and Air, New Cabinets, New Flooring, New Paint inside and out, New Sinks, Fixtures, Harware, and Lighting and more. Call for more detail or to schedule a viewing to see it in person right away.

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Walk-in closet
• Ample space

Tags

• NEWER AC UNIT
• ROOF LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• AMPLE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.41 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions: none
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One story; Home faces south; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.18%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $23,691
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $74,426
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,066/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $854	-5% $814	+0% $774	+5% $733	+10% $693
Rent	-10% $598	-5% $686	+0% $774	+5% $861	+10% $949
Rate	-1.0pp $846	-0.5pp $810	base $774	+0.5pp $736	+1.0pp $699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	24d	1	0.55mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	24d	1	0.72mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	15d	1	0.77mi
133 Lameraux Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,550	$1.50	24d	1	0.85mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$2,175	$2.34	3d	24	0.89mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,800	$1.76	4d	8	1.09mi
728 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	24d	1	1.22mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	24d	1	1.31mi
7676 Carlton Arms Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	987	$1,833	$1.86	24d	1	1.39mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	4d	1	1.39mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	24d	1	1.42mi
408 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,100	$1.43	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   price $143,000
3. 2026-05-01
   status Active
4. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-01
   status Active
6. 2025-12-01
   price $150,000
7. 2025-11-28
   historical
8. 2025-11-08
   price $157,000
9. 2025-09-15
   price $160,000
10. 2025-08-26
    price $175,000
11. 2025-08-14
    price $185,000
12. 2025-08-04
    price $195,000
13. 2025-05-04
    listed $202,000 Active
14. 2024-10-06
    historical
15. 2024-05-12
    price $200,000
16. 2024-04-15
    listed $230,000 Active
17. 2022-06-15
    soldstatus $211,000
18. 2022-06-13
    soldstatus $211,000 Closed 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Great Souteast Winter Haven Location on 0.41 Acre parcel. You'll own the land, No Lot rent on this Move in Ready 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Home. Less than 5 miles to Legoland, Publix, Super Wall Mart, Shopping, Restaurants, and Eagle Ridge Mall. Just 33 miles to Disney!!! - Completely Renovated in 2022, New Central Heat and Air, New Cabinets, New Flooring, New Paint inside and out, New Sinks, Fixtures, Harware, and Lighting and more. Call for more detail or to schedule a viewing to see it in person right away.

19. 2022-05-11
    status Pending 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Great Souteast Winter Haven Location on 0.41 Acre parcel. You'll own the land, No Lot rent on this Move in Ready 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Home. Less than 5 miles to Legoland, Publix, Super Wall Mart, Shopping, Restaurants, and Eagle Ridge Mall. Just 33 miles to Disney!!! - Completely Renovated in 2022, New Central Heat and Air, New Cabinets, New Flooring, New Paint inside and out, New Sinks, Fixtures, Harware, and Lighting and more. Call for more detail or to schedule a viewing to see it in person right away.

20. 2022-05-09
    listed $200,000 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Great Souteast Winter Haven Location on 0.41 Acre parcel. You'll own the land, No Lot rent on this Move in Ready 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Home. Less than 5 miles to Legoland, Publix, Super Wall Mart, Shopping, Restaurants, and Eagle Ridge Mall. Just 33 miles to Disney!!! - Completely Renovated in 2022, New Central Heat and Air, New Cabinets, New Flooring, New Paint inside and out, New Sinks, Fixtures, Harware, and Lighting and more. Call for more detail or to schedule a viewing to see it in person right away.

21. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 2021-06-23
    historical
23. 2021-06-17
    listed $50,000
24. 2017-06-13
    soldstatus $50,000
25. 2017-06-08
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
26. 2017-05-11
    status Pending
27. 2017-03-13
    listed $65,000 Active
28. 2004-01-29
    soldstatus $50,500
29. 1997-08-27
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,066 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,066
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,133
• − Management: −$2,133
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $7,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,787
• After-tax cash flow: $7,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+164.8% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-04 Listed $202,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-12 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-13 Sold (MLS) $211,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-09 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-17 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-08 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-13 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records
• 1997-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,066 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.