860 Osprey Ln · Fort Pierce, FL 34949

$230,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 384 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 2,352 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You will love this home located in the gated community of Ocean Resorts on north Hutchinson Island. This 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home is nestled between Indian river and Atlantic Ocean. Located at ocean resorts is a community pool, marina, tennis and pickleball courts, bocce, and club house.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pickleball courts
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• MARINA
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• BOCCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house; 863 sq ft living area
• Exterior features: Lot with 2,352 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $230k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,357 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-33,154
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,297
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34949

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,280/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $212,610

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-33	+0% $-98	+5% $-164	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-253	-5% $-176	+0% $-98	+5% $-21	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-40	base $-98	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 287-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,280
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Pierce

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 78,556
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,470
• Household income: $94,949
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.89%
• Current HPI: 601.12
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.64%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+666.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $230,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2004-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records
• 1996-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,280 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.