784 15th Ct · Birmingham, AL 35215

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1981 0.28 ac lot $121/sqft · 11% below area Est $158k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready home that has recently been updated! This home features 3 bedrooms & 1 full bathroom on large lot with fenced back yard. Oversized front porch leads to entryway into the living room with stone fireplace & vaulted ceilings with exposed wood beam. Updated flooring, paint & light fixtures throughout. Dining room opens to updated kitchen with some new cabinets & countertop. Laundry room off of kitchen for extra storage & access to the side deck for grilling. There are 3 good sized bedrooms with closets & they share the full hall bathroom with a tub/shower combo. Out back features a large back yard and a private wooded view. Convenient location with only 6 minutes to Sun Valley Elm school & 20 mins to downtown Birmingham!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $140k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,416 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,647
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -11.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 15th Ave NW	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,157 (+0%)	10mo	$133,500	$115	65
1209 Rose Lynn Ln	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-6%)	0mo	$150,000	$139	63
1240 Lynn Acres Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,224 (+6%)	6mo	$168,000	$137	60
1360 5th Pl NW	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,220 (+6%)	1mo	$92,500	$76	56
1128 Cardwell Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+6%)	4mo	$93,500	$76	53
524 16th Ave NW	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,093 (-5%)	10mo	$146,000	$134	49
536 16th Ter NW	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+6%)	7mo	$155,000	$127	48
628 16th Ct NW	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+14%)	5mo	$165,000	$125	46
1529 5th Pl NW	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,055 (-9%)	9mo	$88,000	$83	46
1220 Lynn Acres Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	9mo	$160,000	$123	42
549 16th Ave NW	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+14%)	8mo	$174,900	$133	39
1361 5th Pl NW	0.73mi	3/1.0	989 (-14%)	12mo	$110,000	$111	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,835
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,759
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
769 15th Ct NW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,310	$1.16	11d	1	0.08mi
621 15th Ave NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1070	$1,200	$1.12	16d	1	0.49mi
1612 Glenwood St NW Center Point, AL	4.0	3.0	1344	$1,480	$1.10	23d	1	0.68mi
500 15th Ave NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,050	$0.97	3d	1	0.69mi
1356 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,105	$1.04	43d	1	0.73mi
1732 6th St NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,250	$0.96	3d	1	0.76mi
1328 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,050	$0.84	16d	1	0.77mi
1801 Carson Rd Unit 2 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	800	$600	$0.75	10d	1	0.77mi
1333 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,275	$1.21	43d	1	0.78mi
1821 Carson Rd Unit 2 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	800	$765	$0.96	43d	1	0.81mi
1821 Carson Rd Unit 3 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	800	$580	$0.72	21d	1	0.81mi
1305 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.82mi
217 Killough Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,200	$0.99	14d	1	0.82mi
1301 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,100	$0.94	3d	1	0.83mi
1827 Carson Rd Unit 7 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1332	$950	$0.71	23d	1	0.83mi
1827 Carson Rd Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,125	$0.84	43d	1	0.84mi
400 13th Ave NW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$890	$0.81	43d	1	0.86mi
434 15th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.88mi
1208 Americana Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,631	$1.48	11d	1	0.90mi
1232 Oakwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1301	$1,223	$0.94	23d	1	0.95mi
1700 4th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	914	$1,075	$1.18	23d	1	0.98mi
1712 4th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,150	$0.97	23d	1	0.98mi
324 13th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1418	$1,295	$0.91	23d	1	1.01mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	3d	1	1.02mi
405 13th Ct NW Center Point, AL	4.0	1.5	1248	$1,415	$1.13	21d	1	1.03mi
1225 Birchwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,175	$1.08	3d	1	1.04mi
1617 3rd Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,150	$0.82	23d	1	1.06mi
1237 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1066	$995	$0.93	43d	1	1.07mi
433 Orchid Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,255	$1.08	16d	1	1.09mi
848 Old Trail Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	930	$925	$0.99	23d	1	1.13mi
1153 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	3d	1	1.14mi
46 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1178	$1,450	$1.23	43d	1	1.15mi
405 18th Ave NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,299	$1.12	43d	1	1.15mi
40 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,555	$1.21	1d	1	1.17mi
1112 Violet Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,600	$1.13	11d	1	1.20mi
108 13th Ave NW Center Point, AL	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,265	$0.88	23d	1	1.21mi
4141 Pinson Valley Pkwy Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,299	$1.50	43d	1	1.21mi
208 Sam Pate Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	988	$1,385	$1.40	2d	1	1.25mi
120 Shawnee Ln NW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,075	$0.96	43d	1	1.30mi
305 18th Ct NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1270	$1,100	$0.87	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    historical $1,300
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $139,900 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Move in ready home that has recently been updated! This home features 3 bedrooms & 1 full bathroom on large lot with fenced back yard. Oversized front porch leads to entryway into the living room with stone fireplace & vaulted ceilings with exposed wood beam. Updated flooring, paint & light fixtures throughout. Dining room opens to updated kitchen with some new cabinets & countertop. Laundry room off of kitchen for extra storage & access to the side deck for grilling. There are 3 good sized bedrooms with closets & they share the full hall bathroom with a tub/shower combo. Out back features a large back yard and a private wooded view. Convenient location with only 6 minutes to Sun Valley Elm school & 20 mins to downtown Birmingham!

16. 2026-04-03
    listed $1,300
17. 2026-02-17
    price $134,900
18. 2026-02-04
    price $138,000
19. 2025-09-10
    soldstatus $52,323
20. 2006-09-29
    soldstatus $74,000
21. 1996-07-22
    soldstatus $53,850
22. 1989-01-19
    soldstatus $51,369

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$207
• After-tax cash flow: $1,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-97.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $1,300 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-14 Listed $139,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed for Rent $1,300 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $134,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $138,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $52,323 Public Records
• 2006-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $53,850 Public Records
• 1989-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $51,369 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,199 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.